Buffalo @ Toledo: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Tue, Oct 31, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Toledo · Conference game

Weather at kickoff34°F9 mphgusts 17DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Buffalo

3-5 · Power #119

final

Final

Toledo

7-1 · Power #58

▲ winner

Closing spread

TOL -15.5

✓ TOL W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

BUFF 18–34 TOL

✓ TOL (87%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTOL -15.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTOL -15.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close49.5

Line context

Home favorites of 13.5–17.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 48% (54 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTOL -15.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TOL as a 15.5-point home favorite against BUFF, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TOL won 31–13; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 49.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 84%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.8 against an average line of 15.2; 54.6 points a game (usually 55.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USA vs ODU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-16.5	27–20	L	P47
Very close	APP vs ODU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-16	27–14	L	U50.5
Very close	APP vs TROY 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-14	47–10	W	O50.5
Very close	UAB vs LT 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-13.75	52–38	W	O49
Very close	BOIS vs USU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-16.5	42–23	W	O52
Very close	TOL vs BGSU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-14.5	35–42	L	O46.5
Very close	TOL vs NIU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar season form & total	-13	20–22	L	U51
Very close	USA vs TXST 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-16	38–21	W	O46
Very close	OHIO vs WMU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-16.5	20–17	L	U52
Very close	UCF vs NAVY 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-15.25	14–17	L	U53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUFF WWWLW	5-3	63%	4-0	4-1
TOL LLLLW	3-5	38%	1-3	2-5

Venue/role: BUFF away, as underdog; TOL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUFF OU–UU	4-3	57%	3-5
TOL OO–UU	3-3	50%	7-1

Stayed under: it needed 6 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 57% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUFFlast 8	3-5 38%	5-3 63%	4-3 57%
TOLlast 8	7-1 88%	3-5 38%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

BUFF 6–6 TOL Series tied · 12 games since 1970 · BUFF has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUFF−8.2 →−9.8▼ 1.6#112

TOL+0.7 →+2.4▲ 1.7#48

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

BUFF

Longer bar = better

TOL

#103

Offense

TOL better ▶

#23

#72

Defense

TOL better ▶

#36

+0.4 #40

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #52

70 plays #41

Pace

Even

69 plays #52

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUFF has the ball

Advantage: TOL defense

	BUFF off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	25.9 #79	20.1 #29	TOL
Yards / play	4.62 #128	5.13 #35	TOL
PPA / play	0.00 #120	+0.03 #38	TOL
Success rate	41% #85	39% #40	TOL

When TOL has the ball

Advantage: TOL offense

	TOL off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	34.9 #23	28.9 #97	TOL
Yards / play	6.39 #33	5.88 #95	TOL
PPA / play	+0.25 #21	+0.05 #49	TOL
Success rate	49% #16	39% #47	TOL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

BUFF scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUFF scored	5.6 #74	6.4 #99	12.0 #94	8.0 #30	5.5 #100	13.5 #59
TOL allowed	3.5 #33	6.3 #42	9.8 #30	5.9 #72	4.5 #24	10.4 #43

TOL scoring against the BUFF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	8.3 #22	9.0 #52	17.3 #38	9.6 #12	8.0 #39	17.6 #17
BUFF allowed	6.3 #90	8.1 #87	14.4 #89	7.3 #103	7.3 #87	14.5 #97

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.