Toledo @ Miami (OH): Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Miami (OH) · Conference game

Weather at kickoff62°F8 mphgusts 16Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Toledo

6-1 · Power #58

▲ winner

Final

Miami (OH)

6-1 · Power #78

final

Closing spread

TOL -2

✓ TOL W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

TOL 25–23 M-OH

✓ TOL (55%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTOL -2

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTOL -2

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close46.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTOL -2

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TOL as a 2-point road favorite at M-OH, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TOL won 21–17; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 46.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 4 against an average line of 2.6; 39.4 points a game (usually 54.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FRES @ SDSU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2	30–20	W	O44.25
Very close	APP @ MRSH 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-2	21–28	L	O47.5
Very close	BSU @ SDSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	16–27	L	U44.25
Very close	AFA @ CSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	35–21	W	O45
Very close	UL @ UAB 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-2.5	24–20	W	U50.5
Very close	AFA @ SDSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2	13–3	W	U43.5
Very close	KSU @ ISU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-1	10–9	P	U45
Very close	UK @ SC 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.5	16–10	W	U49
Very close	SDSU @ NEV 2020 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-1.5	21–26	L	O46.5
Very close	MSU @ RUTG 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4	31–13	W	U50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOL LLLLL	2-5	29%	1-2	1-5
M-OH WWWWW	6-1	86%	2-0	1-1

Venue/role: TOL away, as favorite; M-OH home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOL UOO–U	3-2	60%	6-1
M-OH OOU–O	4-1	80%	6-1

Stayed under: it needed 9 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 56% of games with totals 42.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TOLlast 7	6-1 86%	2-5 29%	3-2 60%
M-OHlast 7	6-1 86%	6-1 86%	4-1 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TOL+0.7 →+1.3▲ 0.6#55

M-OH−11.1 →−2.3▲ 8.8#76

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

TOL

Longer bar = better

M-OH

#21

Offense

◀ TOL better

#48

#40

Defense

Even

#43

0.0 #72

Turnovers

◀ TOL better

−0.3 #88

68 plays #61

Pace

◀ TOL faster

58 plays #131

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TOL has the ball

Advantage: TOL offense

	TOL off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	36.9 #18	19.1 #26	Even
Yards / play	6.71 #22	5.10 #38	Even
PPA / play	+0.25 #26	+0.06 #52	TOL
Success rate	49% #17	40% #54	TOL

When M-OH has the ball

Even matchup

	M-OH off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	31.6 #47	20.6 #40	Even
Yards / play	6.46 #34	5.19 #42	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #38	+0.03 #38	Even
Success rate	42% #72	39% #41	TOL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TOL scoring against the M-OH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	8.4 #27	8.3 #66	16.7 #49	11.0 #6	9.1 #26	20.1 #7
M-OH allowed	4.7 #64	4.1 #16	8.9 #25	5.0 #57	5.3 #45	10.3 #44

M-OH scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
M-OH scored	10.9 #8	7.3 #87	18.1 #32	7.3 #51	5.1 #104	12.4 #80
TOL allowed	4.0 #45	6.7 #54	10.7 #48	4.7 #51	5.1 #43	9.9 #37

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.