Akron @ Bowling Green: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 2:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Bowling Green · Conference game

Weather at kickoff51°F5 mphgusts 12Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Akron

1-6 · Power #130

final

Final

Bowling Green

3-4 · Power #80

▲ winner

Closing spread

BGSU -7

✓ BGSU W

Total

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

AKR 17–25 BGSU

✓ BGSU (71%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBGSU -7

Total37

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBGSU -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close37

Line context

Home favorites of 5–9 since 2023: won 67%, covered 54% (55 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBGSU -7

Total37

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BGSU as a 7-point home favorite against AKR, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BGSU won 41–14; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 37, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13 against an average line of 6.8; 36.8 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FAU vs WKU 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	10–6	L	U38
Very close	CSU vs UNM 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-7.25	17–0	W	U36
Very close	WKU vs FIU 2020 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	38–21	W	O42
Very close	M-OH vs WMU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	10–16	L	U44
Close	EMU vs KENT 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	28–14	W	O40
Close	BOIS vs SDSU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-6	35–13	W	O38
Close	VT vs GT 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-4	27–28	L	O40.5
Close	ILL vs NU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-7	47–14	W	O44.5
Close	M-OH vs BGSU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	27–0	W	U43
Close	WKU vs USM 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	10–7	L	U45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AKR LWLLW	3-4	43%	3-1	3-2
BGSU WLWLW	5-2	71%	1-1	1-0

Venue/role: AKR away, as underdog; BGSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AKR UOU–U	1-4	20%	1-6
BGSU UUO–U	2-3	40%	3-4

Went over in Q3. Of 14 earlier overs in games with totals 33–41, 43% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AKRlast 7	1-6 14%	3-4 43%	1-4 20%
BGSUlast 7	3-4 43%	5-2 71%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

AKR 10–21 BGSU BGSU leads · 31 games since 1985 · AKR has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AKR−1.0 →−15.2▼ 14.2#129

BGSU−3.0 →−7.5▼ 4.5#101

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

AKR

Longer bar = better

BGSU

#131

Offense

BGSU better ▶

#117

#49

Defense

◀ AKR better

#73

−0.6 #112

Turnovers

BGSU better ▶

0.0 #66

64 plays #94

Pace

◀ AKR faster

59 plays #129

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AKR has the ball

Advantage: BGSU defense

	AKR off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	15.6 #131	26.6 #77	BGSU
Yards / play	4.37 #132	5.67 #78	BGSU
PPA / play	−0.10 #135	+0.04 #45	BGSU
Success rate	36% #126	44% #92	BGSU

When BGSU has the ball

Advantage: AKR defense

	BGSU off	AKR def	Edge
Points / game	19.6 #120	27.7 #87	AKR
Yards / play	5.11 #106	5.29 #50	AKR
PPA / play	−0.04 #126	+0.01 #29	AKR
Success rate	38% #117	38% #31	AKR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

AKR scoring against the BGSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AKR scored	3.9 #105	4.9 #122	8.7 #124	2.4 #128	3.0 #129	5.4 #133
BGSU allowed	9.9 #126	6.7 #53	16.6 #108	7.7 #100	2.3 #4	10.0 #41

BGSU scoring against the AKR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BGSU scored	3.4 #112	8.3 #70	11.7 #104	5.9 #75	2.0 #131	7.9 #122
AKR allowed	2.0 #10	9.9 #109	11.9 #65	10.1 #131	3.6 #11	13.7 #87

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.