Buffalo @ Kent State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Kent State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff53°F11 mphgusts 24DryWeather watch ›

Buffalo

2-5 · Power #119

▲ winner

Final

Kent State

1-6 · Power #133

final

Closing spread

BUFF -6.5

✓ BUFF W

Total

▼ Under · 30 pts

Model before kickoff

BUFF 28–21 KENT

✓ BUFF (68%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBUFF -6.5

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBUFF -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–8.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 56% (50 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBUFF -6.5

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUFF as a 6.5-point road favorite at KENT, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BUFF won 24–6; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 30 points stayed under 44, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.5 against an average line of 6.7; 48.7 points a game (usually 54.4). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	M-OH @ BGSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	13–17	L	U45
Very close	SJSU @ UNLV 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-6	27–20	W	O44
Very close	UNT @ USM 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.25	38–14	W	O49
Very close	USM @ ARST 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	37–44	L	O46.5
Very close	UNM @ USU 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6	27–41	L	O49
Very close	OHIO @ BGSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6.25	10–21	L	U48.5
Very close	NEV @ HAW 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6.25	16–31	L	U51.5
Very close	WYO @ CSU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & season form	-8.5	14–13	L	U42.5
Very close	BGSU @ AKR 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-9	31–28	L	O49.5
Close	CONN @ FIU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	33–12	W	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUFF LWWWL	4-3	57%	3-0	0-2
KENT WLLWL	3-4	43%	1-1	2-4

Venue/role: BUFF away, as favorite; KENT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUFF OOU–U	4-2	67%	2-5
KENT OOU–O	3-2	60%	1-6

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 56% of games with totals 40–48 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUFFlast 7	2-5 29%	4-3 57%	4-2 67%
KENTlast 7	1-6 14%	3-4 43%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUFF−8.2 →−11.0▼ 2.8#116

KENT−15.5 →−19.0▼ 3.5#133

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

BUFF

Longer bar = better

KENT

#106

Offense

◀ BUFF better

#132

#95

Defense

◀ BUFF better

#113

+0.4 #35

Turnovers

◀ BUFF better

−0.1 #77

71 plays #38

Pace

◀ BUFF faster

63 plays #106

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUFF has the ball

Even matchup

	BUFF off	KENT def	Edge
Points / game	26.1 #87	34.3 #119	BUFF
Yards / play	4.58 #128	5.93 #94	KENT
PPA / play	−0.02 #124	+0.25 #126	Even
Success rate	41% #86	45% #114	BUFF

When KENT has the ball

Advantage: BUFF defense

	KENT off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	13.4 #134	32.1 #115	Even
Yards / play	4.32 #134	6.29 #123	Even
PPA / play	−0.06 #130	+0.09 #71	BUFF
Success rate	36% #130	42% #72	BUFF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

BUFF scoring against the KENT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUFF scored	5.4 #78	6.3 #110	11.7 #105	8.7 #25	5.3 #100	14.0 #59
KENT allowed	8.6 #120	9.4 #102	18.0 #120	9.4 #123	6.9 #77	16.3 #113

KENT scoring against the BUFF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KENT scored	4.3 #101	2.9 #130	7.1 #130	4.3 #109	2.0 #132	6.3 #129
BUFF allowed	6.3 #92	9.3 #99	15.6 #101	8.3 #110	8.3 #101	16.6 #116

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.