Bowling Green @ Buffalo: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sat, Oct 14, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Buffalo · Conference game

Weather at kickoff50°F9 mphgusts 17Wet0.1 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Bowling Green

2-4 · Power #80

▲ winner

Final

Buffalo

2-4 · Power #119

final

Closing spread

BUFF -2.5

✓ BGSU W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

BGSU 23–25 BUFF

✗ BUFF (57%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseBUFF -2.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBUFF -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44.5

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–4.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 45% (51 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseBUFF -2.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUFF as a 2.5-point home favorite against BGSU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: BGSU won 24–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 44.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.2 against an average line of 2.9; 49 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	M-OH vs BALL 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	18–17	L	U45
Very close	RICE vs UTEP 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3.5	37–30	W	O47
Very close	CLT vs WKU 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	19–37	L	O46.5
Very close	NIU vs M-OH 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-0.5	23–29	L	O44
Very close	EMU vs BALL 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	24–10	W	U43.5
Very close	BUFF vs M-OH 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	24–20	W	U50.25
Very close	MTSU vs ODU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	17–24	L	U48.5
Very close	RICE vs ECU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	24–17	W	U47
Very close	MASS vs UNM 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	31–34	L	O48.5
Very close	VT vs GT 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & rest	-4	27–28	L	O40.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BGSU WWLWL	4-2	67%	3-1	3-2
BUFF LLWWW	4-2	67%	1-2	0-1

Venue/role: BGSU away, as underdog; BUFF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BGSU OUUO–	2-2	50%	2-4
BUFF OOOU–	4-1	80%	2-4

Stayed under: it needed 7 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 56% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BGSUlast 6	2-4 33%	4-2 67%	2-2 50%
BUFFlast 6	2-4 33%	4-2 67%	4-1 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

BGSU 13–9 BUFF BGSU leads · 22 games since 2000 · BUFF has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BGSU−3.0 →−9.4▼ 6.4#110

BUFF−8.2 →−9.5▼ 1.3#111

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

BGSU

Longer bar = better

BUFF

#119

Offense

BUFF better ▶

#97

#99

Defense

Even

#100

−0.3 #94

Turnovers

BUFF better ▶

+0.8 #19

59 plays #128

Pace

BUFF faster ▶

71 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BGSU has the ball

Even matchup

	BGSU off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	18.8 #124	33.5 #116	Even
Yards / play	5.13 #108	6.48 #124	Even
PPA / play	−0.03 #126	+0.12 #82	BUFF
Success rate	37% #117	42% #76	BUFF

When BUFF has the ball

Even matchup

	BUFF off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	28.2 #78	28.7 #90	Even
Yards / play	4.73 #125	6.06 #102	BGSU
PPA / play	+0.05 #106	+0.15 #96	Even
Success rate	41% #80	45% #108	BUFF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

BGSU scoring against the BUFF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BGSU scored	2.3 #128	7.3 #86	9.7 #118	6.8 #60	2.3 #129	9.2 #118
BUFF allowed	5.7 #84	8.5 #89	14.2 #88	9.7 #128	9.7 #119	19.3 #129

BUFF scoring against the BGSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUFF scored	5.2 #85	7.3 #86	12.5 #92	9.0 #27	6.2 #82	15.2 #47
BGSU allowed	10.3 #127	7.8 #80	18.2 #118	7.8 #104	2.7 #7	10.5 #45

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.