East Carolina @ Rice: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Rice · Conference game

Weather at kickoff91°F12 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

East Carolina

1-3 · Power #110

final

Final

Rice

2-2 · Power #90

▲ winner

Closing spread

RICE -3.5

✓ RICE W

Total

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

ECU 23–27 RICE

✓ RICE (61%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseRICE -3.5

Total46

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseRICE -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close46

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseRICE -3.5

Total46

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like RICE as a 3.5-point home favorite against ECU, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: RICE won 24–17; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 46, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.6 against an average line of 3.6; 46.4 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MTSU vs ODU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	17–24	L	U48.5
Very close	USA vs GASO 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	41–14	W	O49.5
Very close	CLT vs WKU 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & spread	-2.5	19–37	L	O46.5
Very close	UTEP vs ODU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	28–21	W	O48.5
Very close	CCU vs USM 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-5	26–23	L	O48
Very close	RICE vs UTEP 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	37–30	W	O47
Very close	FAU vs MTSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	17–27	L	U49.5
Very close	USA vs TROY 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	6–10	L	U47
Very close	SC vs MIZ 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	10–23	L	U45.25
Close	MTSU vs CSU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	23–31	L	O50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ECU WLLW	2-2	50%	1-1	1-2
RICE WWWL	3-1	75%	2-0	1-1

Venue/role: ECU away, as underdog; RICE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ECU UOOU	2-2	50%	1-3
RICE UOOO	3-1	75%	2-2

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 15. 60% of games with totals 42–50 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ECUlast 4	1-3 25%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%
RICElast 4	2-2 50%	3-1 75%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ECU−10.0 →−9.0▲ 1.0#108

RICE−10.1 →−6.7▲ 3.4#95

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

ECU

Longer bar = better

RICE

#121

Offense

RICE better ▶

#35

#60

Defense

◀ ECU better

#105

+0.3 #54

Turnovers

◀ ECU better

−0.3 #89

65 plays #92

Pace

Even

66 plays #81

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ECU has the ball

Even matchup

	ECU off	RICE def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #102	31.8 #113	Even
Yards / play	4.35 #133	6.10 #113	Even
PPA / play	−0.08 #129	+0.11 #85	RICE
Success rate	36% #121	45% #110	Even

When RICE has the ball

Advantage: RICE offense

	RICE off	ECU def	Edge
Points / game	35.3 #35	26.0 #82	RICE
Yards / play	6.17 #47	5.23 #56	Even
PPA / play	+0.32 #21	+0.08 #69	RICE
Success rate	47% #38	36% #34	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ECU scoring against the RICE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ECU scored	5.0 #85	8.5 #75	13.5 #80	4.3 #101	4.3 #109	8.5 #119
RICE allowed	2.5 #23	8.3 #87	10.8 #57	8.8 #114	9.0 #109	17.8 #123

RICE scoring against the ECU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RICE scored	14.8 #4	7.0 #92	21.8 #14	4.3 #101	5.5 #92	9.8 #108
ECU allowed	4.3 #56	8.0 #82	12.3 #74	6.8 #93	7.0 #82	13.8 #91

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.