South Florida @ Navy: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Navy · Conference game

Weather at kickoff73°F8 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

South Florida

2-2 · Power #95

▲ winner

Final

Navy

1-2 · Power #108

final

Closing spread

NAVY -3.5

✓ USF W

Total

▲ Over · 74 pts

Model before kickoff

USF 23–28 NAVY

✗ NAVY (64%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNAVY -3.5

Total54

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseNAVY -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close54

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNAVY -3.5

Total54

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NAVY as a 3.5-point home favorite against USF, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: USF won 44–30 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 74 points went over 54, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.6 against an average line of 4.4; 57.6 points a game (usually 54.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GAST vs ODU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	31–17	W	U53.75
Close	UL vs ARST 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-6.25	38–18	W	O51.25
Close	FAU vs RICE 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar total & situation	-5	17–14	L	U54.5
Close	ODU vs ARST 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar total & spread	-5	29–26	L	U56
Close	FAU vs MTSU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	17–27	L	U49.5
Close	FSU vs DUKE 2020 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	56–35	W	O57
Close	GAST vs CONN 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar total & spread	-3	35–14	W	U54.5
Close	NIU vs CMU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar total & spread	-4.5	22–35	L	O54
Close	CMU vs NIU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-6	38–39	L	O56
Close	WMU vs EMU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar total & spread	-4.5	23–45	L	O55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USF LLWW	2-2	50%	0-1	2-1
NAVY LLW	1-2	33%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: USF away, as underdog; NAVY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USF –UUO	1-2	33%	2-2
NAVY –UO	1-1	50%	1-2

Went over in Q4. Of 62 earlier overs in games with totals 50–58, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USFlast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	1-2 33%
NAVYlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USF−3.1 →−8.6▼ 5.5#105

NAVY−15.5 →−0.8▲ 14.7#65

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

USF

Longer bar = better

NAVY

#101

Offense

Even

#100

#87

Defense

Even

#90

0.0 #75

Turnovers

NAVY better ▶

+0.7 #34

80 plays #3

Pace

◀ USF faster

62 plays #112

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USF has the ball

Even matchup

	USF off	NAVY def	Edge
Points / game	26.8 #84	23.3 #67	Even
Yards / play	5.45 #88	5.68 #83	Even
PPA / play	+0.03 #108	+0.11 #82	NAVY
Success rate	36% #125	48% #126	Even

When NAVY has the ball

Even matchup

	NAVY off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #125	27.8 #95	USF
Yards / play	5.40 #91	5.93 #102	Even
PPA / play	+0.06 #96	+0.17 #103	Even
Success rate	41% #87	37% #46	USF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

USF scoring against the NAVY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USF scored	8.5 #33	5.8 #111	14.3 #76	7.0 #53	5.5 #90	12.5 #72
NAVY allowed	7.0 #108	7.0 #68	14.0 #89	4.7 #63	4.7 #46	9.3 #44

NAVY scoring against the USF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NAVY scored	7.0 #48	3.3 #124	10.3 #109	2.3 #125	4.3 #104	6.7 #125
USF allowed	5.3 #83	6.8 #64	12.0 #72	7.8 #107	8.0 #99	15.8 #112

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.