Navy @ Memphis: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Thu, Sep 14, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Memphis · Conference game

Weather at kickoff73°F5 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Navy

1-1 · Power #108

final

Final

Memphis

2-0 · Power #50

▲ winner

Closing spread

MEM -12.5

✓ NAVY W

Total

▲ Over · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

NAVY 19–32 MEM

✓ MEM (83%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMEM -12.5

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMEM -12.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMEM -12.5

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MEM as a 12.5-point home favorite against NAVY, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: MEM won 28–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 52 points went over 47, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.4 against an average line of 12.8; 53.4 points a game (usually 55.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TCU vs CAL 2021 · Week 2 · very close · similar total & spread	-11.5	34–32	L	O46.5
Close	PITT vs NCST 2020 · Week 5 · close · similar total & spread	-14	29–30	L	O46
Close	WASH vs ORST 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & rest	-13.5	27–21	L	U51
Close	CCU vs GAST 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar spread	-12.5	40–42	L	O53.5
Close	CIN vs HOU 2020 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest	-12.5	38–10	W	U51.5
Close	ASU vs COLO 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & total	-14	35–13	W	O45.5
Loose	WASH vs STAN 2020 · Week 14 · loose · similar spread & total	-12	26–31	L	O49.5
Loose	CIN vs TLSA 2020 · Week 16 · loose · similar spread & total	-14	27–24	L	O44.5
Loose	TULN vs USM 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread & total	-11.75	24–27	L	O48.5
Loose	PSU vs IU 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread & situation	-12.25	24–0	W	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NAVY LL	0-2	0%	—	0-1
MEM LW	1-1	50%	0-1	1-1

Venue/role: NAVY away, as underdog; MEM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NAVY –U	0-1	0%	1-1
MEM OU	1-1	50%	2-0

Went over in Q4. Of 27 earlier overs in games with totals 43–51, 30% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NAVYlast 2	1-1 50%	0-2 0%	0-1 0%
MEMlast 2	2-0 100%	1-1 50%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NAVY−15.5 →−0.9▲ 14.6#74

MEM+6.5 →+12.2▲ 5.7#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

NAVY

Longer bar = better

MEM

#83

Offense

MEM better ▶

#39

#93

Defense

MEM better ▶

+1.0 #21

Turnovers

Even

+1.0 #33

59 plays #122

Pace

MEM faster ▶

76 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NAVY has the ball

Advantage: MEM defense

	NAVY off	MEM def	Edge
Points / game	13.5 #126	8.5 #13	MEM
Yards / play	4.93 #108	2.70 #2	MEM
PPA / play	+0.20 #52	−0.41 #1	MEM
Success rate	47% #45	26% #6	MEM

When MEM has the ball

Advantage: MEM offense

	MEM off	NAVY def	Edge
Points / game	46.5 #17	21.0 #63	MEM
Yards / play	6.23 #57	5.41 #80	MEM
PPA / play	+0.20 #55	+0.17 #101	MEM
Success rate	51% #27	51% #129	MEM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 13 FBS teams

NAVY scoring against the MEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NAVY scored	3.5	5.0	8.5	0.0	5.0	5.0
MEM allowed	3.5	1.5	5.0	0.0	3.5	3.5

MEM scoring against the NAVY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MEM scored	6.5	19.5	26.0	14.0	6.5	20.5
NAVY allowed	7.0	7.0	14.0	3.5	3.5	7.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.