Tulane @ Southern Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Southern Miss

Weather at kickoff94°F9 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Tulane

1-1 · Power #55

▲ winner

Final

Southern Miss

1-1 · Power #121

final

Closing spread

TULN -8

✓ TULN W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 24 pts

Model before kickoff

TULN 29–21 USM

✓ TULN (71%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTULN -8

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTULN -8

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTULN -8

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TULN as an 8-point road favorite at USM, the favorite won 6, covered 2, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: TULN won 21–3; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 24 points stayed under 47.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.7 against an average line of 8.2; 40.5 points a game (usually 54.4). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TROY @ TXST 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	31–28	L	O48.5
Very close	M-OH @ BGSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	13–17	L	U45
Very close	CAL @ ARIZ 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-7	3–10	L	U47
Close	FAU @ ODU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar total & rest	-6.5	16–30	L	U48
Close	SYR @ BC 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & rest	-10.5	32–23	L	O47
Close	JMU @ ODU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar total & rest	-7.5	37–3	W	U48
Close	MIA @ VT 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-9	20–14	L	U48.25
Close	UTSA @ USM 2020 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-9	23–20	L	U52.5
Close	TOL @ WMU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-8.5	14–20	L	U50.5
Close	USC @ COLO 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-9	37–14	W	P51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TULN WL	1-1	50%	—	1-0
USM WL	1-1	50%	1-0	0-1

Venue/role: TULN away, as favorite; USM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TULN –U	0-1	0%	1-1
USM OO	2-0	100%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 61% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TULNlast 2	1-1 50%	1-1 50%	0-1 0%
USMlast 2	1-1 50%	1-1 50%	2-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TULN+6.3 →−1.9▼ 8.2#77

USM−0.3 →−10.5▼ 10.2#123

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

TULN

Longer bar = better

USM

#98

Offense

Even

#94

#74

Defense

◀ TULN better

#88

+0.5 #50

Turnovers

◀ TULN better

0.0 #77

68 plays #64

Pace

Even

66 plays #74

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TULN has the ball

Even matchup

	TULN off	USM def	Edge
Points / game	28.5 #75	40.0 #127	TULN
Yards / play	5.76 #72	6.96 #127	TULN
PPA / play	−0.05 #126	+0.13 #91	USM
Success rate	36% #118	31% #8	USM

When USM has the ball

Advantage: TULN defense

	USM off	TULN def	Edge
Points / game	26.5 #85	27.0 #93	Even
Yards / play	5.34 #97	5.02 #57	TULN
PPA / play	+0.15 #65	+0.06 #70	Even
Success rate	32% #129	40% #74	TULN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 66 FBS teams

TULN scoring against the USM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TULN scored	8.5	12.0	20.5	3.5	4.5	8.0
USM allowed	10.5	8.5	19.0	10.5	10.5	21.0

USM scoring against the TULN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USM scored	8.5	6.5	15.0	8.5	3.0	11.5
TULN allowed	3.5	6.5	10.0	7.0	10.0	17.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.