Central Michigan @ Buffalo: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sat, Oct 7, 2023, 2:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Buffalo · Conference game

Weather at kickoff57°F17 mphgusts 34DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Central Michigan

3-2 · Power #122

final

Final

Buffalo

1-4 · Power #119

▲ winner

Closing spread

CMU -1

✓ BUFF W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

CMU 26–26 BUFF

✗ CMU (51%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCMU -1

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCMU -1

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCMU -1

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CMU as a 1-point road favorite at BUFF, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: BUFF won 37–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.4 against an average line of 2; 53 points a game (usually 54.6).

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NIU @ BUFF 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.75	33–27	W	O59
Very close	BUFF @ BGSU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	38–7	W	U55.75
Very close	LT @ UTEP 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1	24–10	W	U50.5
Very close	NIU @ WMU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-0.5	24–21	W	U49
Very close	CMU @ M-OH 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.75	17–28	L	U56
Very close	RICE @ USM 2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1	30–6	W	U58.75
Very close	BALL @ NIU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	29–30	L	U59.5
Very close	RICE @ LT 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	42–41	L	O57
Very close	NIU @ OHIO 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	17–24	L	U65.5
Very close	NIU @ BALL 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.25	38–44	L	O58.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CMU LLWWL	2-3	40%	2-1	0-2
BUFF WLLWW	3-2	60%	0-2	3-1

Venue/role: CMU away, as favorite; BUFF home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CMU –OOOO	4-0	100%	3-2
BUFF OOOOU	4-1	80%	1-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CMUlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	4-0 100%
BUFFlast 5	1-4 20%	3-2 60%	4-1 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CMU−7.2 →−10.8▼ 3.6#119

BUFF−8.2 →−10.3▼ 2.1#115

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

CMU

Longer bar = better

BUFF

#79

Offense

◀ CMU better

#101

#126

Defense

Even

#119

−0.4 #96

Turnovers

BUFF better ▶

+0.2 #59

63 plays #105

Pace

BUFF faster ▶

72 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CMU has the ball

Advantage: CMU offense

	CMU off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	25.8 #91	37.6 #130	CMU
Yards / play	5.39 #94	6.83 #130	CMU
PPA / play	+0.20 #48	+0.22 #118	CMU
Success rate	41% #83	44% #97	Even

When BUFF has the ball

Advantage: BUFF offense

	BUFF off	CMU def	Edge
Points / game	26.4 #87	33.4 #118	BUFF
Yards / play	4.62 #127	7.11 #133	Even
PPA / play	+0.03 #108	+0.34 #132	BUFF
Success rate	41% #80	47% #122	BUFF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

CMU scoring against the BUFF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CMU scored	4.2 #99	11.0 #30	15.2 #68	4.4 #106	6.2 #76	10.6 #104
BUFF allowed	6.8 #106	8.8 #93	15.6 #101	11.6 #131	10.4 #122	22.0 #131

BUFF scoring against the CMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUFF scored	4.2 #99	6.2 #106	10.4 #112	8.0 #44	7.4 #59	15.4 #46
CMU allowed	8.4 #118	6.8 #58	15.2 #95	8.0 #107	10.2 #120	18.2 #124

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.