Washington State @ UCLA: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sat, Oct 7, 2023, 3:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at UCLA · Conference game

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Washington State

4-0 · Power #46

final

Final

UCLA

3-1 · Power #26

▲ winner

Closing spread

UCLA -3.5

✓ UCLA W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

WSU 27–30 UCLA

✓ UCLA (58%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUCLA -3.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUCLA -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUCLA -3.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UCLA as a 3.5-point home favorite against WSU, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UCLA won 25–17; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.3 against an average line of 3.7; 56.9 points a game (usually 54.6).

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BAY vs TEX 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.25	31–24	W	U61.5
Very close	BAY vs OKST 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	25–36	L	O56
Close	UCF vs SMU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	41–19	W	U65
Close	MD vs PUR 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	29–31	L	O59.5
Close	UTAH vs USC 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	43–42	L	O65
Close	WISC vs MD 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-5	23–10	W	U47.5
Close	AUB vs MISS 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	31–20	W	U67.5
Close	TA&M vs AUB 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	20–3	W	U49.5
Close	TCU vs KSU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	38–28	W	O54.5
Close	ORE vs UCLA 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	45–30	W	O70.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSU WWLW	3-1	75%	1-0	2-0
UCLA LWWL	2-2	50%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: WSU away, as underdog; UCLA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSU OUOO	3-1	75%	4-0
UCLA –UOU	1-2	33%	3-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSUlast 4	4-0 100%	3-1 75%	3-1 75%
UCLAlast 4	3-1 75%	2-2 50%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSU+5.5 →+9.3▲ 3.8#23

UCLA+2.8 →+7.3▲ 4.5#29

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

WSU

Longer bar = better

UCLA

#13

Offense

◀ WSU better

#46

#60

Defense

UCLA better ▶

+0.3 #48

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #49

74 plays #17

Pace

◀ WSU faster

63 plays #107

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSU has the ball

Even matchup

	WSU off	UCLA def	Edge
Points / game	45.8 #5	11.0 #6	Even
Yards / play	7.26 #13	3.75 #1	Even
PPA / play	+0.29 #20	−0.14 #3	Even
Success rate	50% #15	35% #19	Even

When UCLA has the ball

Even matchup

	UCLA off	WSU def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #55	25.5 #75	Even
Yards / play	7.27 #12	5.73 #87	UCLA
PPA / play	+0.20 #46	−0.04 #24	WSU
Success rate	42% #70	39% #53	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

WSU scoring against the UCLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSU scored	12.5 #9	15.5 #4	28.0 #4	8.3 #39	9.5 #24	17.8 #25
UCLA allowed	3.5 #43	4.0 #14	7.5 #23	1.8 #10	1.8 #3	3.5 #3

UCLA scoring against the WSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCLA scored	12.3 #12	9.5 #57	21.8 #14	5.3 #89	5.0 #98	10.3 #107
WSU allowed	3.3 #34	5.0 #35	8.3 #29	5.0 #57	12.3 #132	17.3 #121

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.