Buffalo @ Akron: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Akron · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F6 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Buffalo

0-4 · Power #119

▲ winner

Final

Akron

1-3 · Power #130

final

Closing spread

AKR -3

✓ BUFF W

Total

▼ Under · 23 pts

Model before kickoff

BUFF 25–28 AKR

✗ AKR (59%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAKR -3

Total53

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseAKR -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close53

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAKR -3

Total53

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like AKR as a 3-point home favorite against BUFF, the favorite won 2, covered 2, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BUFF won 13–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 23 points stayed under 53, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

2 of 1020%

Below normal · usually 59%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 6.9 against an average line of 2.9; 52.1 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NIU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4	14–22	L	U54.5
Very close	TXST vs GASO 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-2	30–38	L	O52
Very close	MTSU vs CSU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	23–31	L	O50
Very close	BUFF vs M-OH 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	24–20	W	U50.25
Very close	RICE vs UNT 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	24–30	L	U55
Very close	WMU vs EMU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	23–45	L	O55.5
Very close	BALL vs EMU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	16–20	L	U57.5
Very close	NIU vs CMU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-4.5	22–35	L	O54
Very close	USF vs TEM 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & total	-1.5	34–14	W	U55
Very close	RUTG vs MD 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-2	16–40	L	O53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUFF WLLW	2-2	50%	2-0	2-1
AKR WLLW	2-2	50%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: BUFF away, as underdog; AKR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUFF OOOO	4-0	100%	0-4
AKR –UUO	1-2	33%	1-3

Stayed under: it needed 34 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 51% of games with totals 49–57 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUFFlast 4	0-4 0%	2-2 50%	4-0 100%
AKRlast 4	1-3 25%	2-2 50%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUFF−8.2 →−10.2▼ 2.0#115

AKR−1.0 →−9.5▼ 8.5#112

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

BUFF

Longer bar = better

AKR

#84

Offense

◀ BUFF better

#123

#124

Defense

AKR better ▶

#48

0.0 #74

Turnovers

◀ BUFF better

−0.5 #100

73 plays #26

Pace

◀ BUFF faster

67 plays #71

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUFF has the ball

Advantage: AKR defense

	BUFF off	AKR def	Edge
Points / game	29.8 #66	27.3 #89	BUFF
Yards / play	4.86 #121	5.12 #48	AKR
PPA / play	+0.07 #92	−0.05 #25	AKR
Success rate	43% #57	36% #30	AKR

When AKR has the ball

Even matchup

	AKR off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	18.8 #123	44.5 #133	Even
Yards / play	4.74 #124	7.27 #133	Even
PPA / play	−0.12 #133	+0.26 #125	Even
Success rate	38% #111	44% #103	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

BUFF scoring against the AKR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUFF scored	5.3 #75	6.0 #105	11.3 #101	9.3 #30	9.3 #33	18.5 #22
AKR allowed	1.8 #9	7.8 #80	9.5 #52	8.5 #113	6.3 #72	14.8 #105

AKR scoring against the BUFF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AKR scored	2.5 #115	7.8 #82	10.3 #109	2.5 #122	3.5 #114	6.0 #126
BUFF allowed	6.8 #101	10.3 #106	17.0 #111	14.5 #133	13.0 #131	27.5 #133

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.