Central Michigan @ Ball State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Ball State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff64°F14 mphgusts 24DryWeather watch ›

Central Michigan

4-3 · Power #122

final

Final

Ball State

1-6 · Power #113

▲ winner

Closing spread

CMU -5

✓ BALL W

Total

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

CMU 24–20 BALL

✗ CMU (62%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCMU -5

Total42

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCMU -5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close42

Line context

Road favorites of 3–7 since 2023: won 67%, covered 51% (57 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCMU -5

Total42

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CMU as a 5-point road favorite at BALL, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: BALL won 24–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 42, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.3 against an average line of 4.6; 45.1 points a game (usually 54). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NIU @ AKR 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & situation	-4	55–14	W	O42.5
Very close	M-OH @ BGSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7	13–17	L	U45
Very close	UNT @ USM 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-5.25	38–14	W	O49
Very close	SJSU @ UNLV 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-6	27–20	W	O44
Very close	UL @ TXST 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-5	41–13	W	O44
Close	NAVY @ CLT 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & total	-3	14–0	W	U44.5
Close	OHIO @ BGSU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.25	10–21	L	U48.5
Close	USF @ TEM 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	28–54	L	O49
Close	TOL @ SDSU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-3	14–17	L	U44.5
Close	WYO @ UNM 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-3	27–14	W	O37

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CMU WWLLL	2-5	29%	2-2	0-4
BALL WLLLW	2-4-1	33%	2-1	1-4-1

Venue/role: CMU away, as favorite; BALL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CMU OOO–U	4-1	80%	4-3
BALL OUO–U	3-3	50%	1-6

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 55% of games with totals 38–46 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CMUlast 7	4-3 57%	2-5 29%	4-1 80%
BALLlast 7	1-6 14%	2-4-1 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CMU 22–26 BALL (1 tied) BALL leads · 49 games since 1975 · CMU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CMU−7.2 →−11.3▼ 4.1#117

BALL−7.6 →−15.4▼ 7.8#130

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

CMU

Longer bar = better

BALL

#105

Offense

◀ CMU better

#125

#112

Defense

Even

#105

−0.9 #128

Turnovers

Even

−0.9 #129

67 plays #72

Pace

◀ CMU faster

62 plays #111

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CMU has the ball

Even matchup

	CMU off	BALL def	Edge
Points / game	22.7 #105	30.7 #104	Even
Yards / play	5.00 #114	5.75 #85	BALL
PPA / play	+0.06 #99	+0.20 #117	Even
Success rate	39% #101	45% #115	Even

When BALL has the ball

Even matchup

	BALL off	CMU def	Edge
Points / game	15.0 #133	30.6 #103	CMU
Yards / play	4.61 #126	6.41 #124	Even
PPA / play	0.00 #119	+0.25 #127	Even
Success rate	37% #122	44% #93	CMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

CMU scoring against the BALL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CMU scored	3.0 #120	9.3 #49	12.3 #93	5.1 #94	5.3 #100	10.4 #105
BALL allowed	4.3 #50	13.6 #131	17.9 #118	8.4 #113	4.4 #29	12.9 #78

BALL scoring against the CMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BALL scored	1.9 #132	3.9 #127	5.7 #133	3.0 #125	6.3 #78	9.3 #119
CMU allowed	7.9 #117	6.7 #54	14.6 #92	7.7 #101	8.3 #101	16.0 #108

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.