Western Kentucky @ Jacksonville State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Tue, Oct 17, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Jacksonville State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff54°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Western Kentucky

4-2 · Power #83

final

Final

Jacksonville State

5-2 · Power #69

▲ winner

Closing spread

WKU -7.5

✓ JXST W

Total

60.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

WKU 33–27 JXST

✗ WKU (67%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWKU -7.5

Total60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWKU -7.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close60.5

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–9.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 63% (40 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWKU -7.5

Total60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WKU as a 7.5-point road favorite at JXST, the favorite won 6, covered 2, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: JXST won 20–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 60.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 0.4 against an average line of 6.9; 55.4 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WMU @ BUFF 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-7	24–17	P	U59.5
Very close	WMU @ NIU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-7	42–21	W	O58.5
Very close	WKU @ LT 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & total	-6	35–28	W	O59
Very close	TOL @ BUFF 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7	27–34	L	O56
Very close	FRES @ UNLV 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-8.5	37–30	L	O62
Very close	BYU @ LIB 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-7	14–41	L	U58
Very close	WKU @ FAU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-7.5	32–31	L	O62.25
Very close	LT @ UTEP 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	3–19	L	U55.5
Very close	BOIS @ CSU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-7.5	30–31	L	O60
Close	GT @ DUKE 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar total & situation	-4.5	31–27	L	U60.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WKU LLWWL	3-3	50%	1-2	2-2
JXST LWPWL	4-2-1	67%	3-1	2-2

Venue/role: WKU away, as favorite; JXST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WKU OOUU–	2-2	50%	4-2
JXST UUOOU	2-5	29%	5-2

Stayed under: it needed 34 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 42% of games with totals 56.5–64.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WKUlast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	2-2 50%
JXSTlast 7	5-2 71%	4-2-1 67%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

WKU 1–3 JXST JXST leads · 4 games since 2023 · JXST has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WKU+3.1 →−2.4▼ 5.5#77

JXST−5.1 →−5.5▼ 0.4#93

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

WKU

Longer bar = better

JXST

#64

Offense

◀ WKU better

#90

#94

Defense

JXST better ▶

#22

+1.3 #6

Turnovers

Even

+1.3 #7

67 plays #69

Pace

JXST faster ▶

71 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WKU has the ball

Advantage: JXST defense

	WKU off	JXST def	Edge
Points / game	32.2 #44	19.4 #28	Even
Yards / play	5.81 #64	4.89 #24	JXST
PPA / play	+0.17 #53	0.00 #26	JXST
Success rate	40% #95	34% #11	JXST

When JXST has the ball

Even matchup

	JXST off	WKU def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #73	29.0 #94	JXST
Yards / play	5.09 #110	6.09 #105	Even
PPA / play	+0.07 #94	+0.13 #85	Even
Success rate	41% #84	43% #91	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

WKU scoring against the JXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WKU scored	12.0 #6	8.5 #66	20.5 #13	4.7 #102	7.0 #61	11.7 #95
JXST allowed	3.9 #42	6.7 #56	10.6 #48	2.9 #16	6.0 #60	8.9 #28

JXST scoring against the WKU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JXST scored	6.3 #64	4.9 #121	11.1 #110	8.9 #23	7.0 #61	15.9 #32
WKU allowed	4.7 #61	10.8 #117	15.5 #97	7.5 #98	6.0 #60	13.5 #86

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.