UCF @ Oklahoma: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Oklahoma · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F8 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

UCF

3-3 · Power #31

final

Final

Oklahoma

6-0 · Power #9

▲ winner

Closing spread

OU -17

✓ UCF W

Total

67.5

▼ Under · 60 pts

Model before kickoff

UCF 22–41 OU

✓ OU (91%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOU -17

Total67.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseOU -17

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close67.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOU -17

Total67.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OU as a 17-point home favorite against UCF, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: OU won 31–29; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 60 points stayed under 67.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 87%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 22 against an average line of 18.9; 64.8 points a game (usually 55.1). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	OSU vs PUR 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar total & situation	-19	59–31	W	O65
Close	OSU vs MSU 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & total	-19.5	56–7	W	U70.5
Close	MISS vs GT 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar spread	-17	48–23	W	O61.5
Close	ND vs LOU 2020 · Week 7 · close · similar spread	-16	12–7	L	U62
Loose	UTAH vs ARIZ 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar total & spread	-17.75	45–20	W	U67.75
Loose	OSU vs ORE 2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar total	-14.5	28–35	L	U65
Loose	MISS vs TLSA 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar total & season form	-21	35–27	L	U66.5
Loose	USC vs ARIZ 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & total	-21	43–41	L	O69.5
Loose	ORE vs COLO 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar total & situation	-21	42–6	W	U70
Loose	OSU vs MD 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-21.75	66–17	W	O71.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCF LWLLL	2-4	33%	0-3	0-2
OU WWWWW	6-0	100%	3-0	5-0

Venue/role: UCF away, as underdog; OU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCF UOOO–	3-1	75%	3-3
OU UOUO–	2-2	50%	6-0

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 20. 35% of games with totals 63.5–71.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCFlast 6	3-3 50%	2-4 33%	3-1 75%
OUlast 6	6-0 100%	6-0 100%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UCF+15.6 →+1.7▼ 13.9#52

OU+20.5 →+21.2▲ 0.7#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

UCF

Longer bar = better

#23

Offense

Even

#10

#95

Defense

OU better ▶

#22

−0.8 #122

Turnovers

OU better ▶

+1.8 #1

69 plays #51

Pace

OU faster ▶

75 plays #9

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UCF has the ball

Even matchup

	UCF off	OU def	Edge
Points / game	35.0 #28	14.0 #7	OU
Yards / play	7.49 #6	5.02 #30	UCF
PPA / play	+0.24 #32	−0.05 #14	Even
Success rate	48% #26	38% #35	Even

When OU has the ball

Advantage: OU offense

	OU off	UCF def	Edge
Points / game	45.2 #4	27.8 #89	OU
Yards / play	6.72 #21	5.68 #79	OU
PPA / play	+0.35 #7	+0.15 #93	OU
Success rate	53% #9	45% #118	OU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UCF scoring against the OU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCF scored	10.8 #12	8.5 #66	19.3 #18	7.2 #56	8.5 #32	15.7 #36
OU allowed	3.8 #39	5.7 #33	9.5 #31	1.5 #4	3.0 #9	4.5 #4

OU scoring against the UCF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OU scored	16.3 #1	11.5 #21	27.8 #3	10.5 #9	6.8 #66	17.3 #21
UCF allowed	4.5 #56	6.3 #47	10.8 #52	4.8 #52	12.2 #132	17.0 #117

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.