South Alabama @ Troy: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Thu, Nov 2, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Troy · Conference game

Weather at kickoff51°F7 mphDryWeather watch ›

South Alabama

4-4 · Power #49

final

Final

Troy

6-2 · Power #29

▲ winner

Closing spread

TROY -7

✓ TROY W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

USA 20–26 TROY

✓ TROY (67%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTROY -7

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTROY -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close43.5

Line context

Home favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 64%, covered 57% (47 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTROY -7

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TROY as a 7-point home favorite against USA, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: TROY won 28–10; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 43.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 48%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 4.6 against an average line of 5.9; 52.8 points a game (usually 54). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WVU vs KSU 2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar team ratings & total	-5	37–10	W	O46
Very close	ILL vs PUR 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-6	24–31	L	O44
Very close	KSU vs WVU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6	34–17	W	O47
Very close	MRSH vs UAB 2020 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & rest	-4.5	13–22	L	U44.75
Very close	NCSU vs MRSH 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & spread	-6.5	48–41	W	O44
Very close	PITT vs DUKE 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	28–26	L	O49
Very close	UK vs SC 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & season form	-4.5	14–24	L	U44.5
Very close	PSU vs MINN 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-5.5	45–17	W	O43
Very close	OHIO vs M-OH 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	16–30	L	O39
Very close	MRSH vs GAST 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	28–23	L	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USA LLWWL	3-5	38%	2-2	1-2
TROY LWWWW	4-4	50%	1-3	3-3

Venue/role: USA away, as underdog; TROY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USA OO–OU	3-3	50%	4-4
TROY UU–UU	2-5	29%	6-2

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 53% of games with totals 39.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USAlast 8	4-4 50%	3-5 38%	3-3 50%
TROYlast 8	6-2 75%	4-4 50%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

USA 4–10 TROY TROY leads · 14 games since 2012 · TROY has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USA−6.2 →+4.7▲ 10.9#40

TROY0.0 →+5.6▲ 5.6#35

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

USA

Longer bar = better

TROY

#31

Offense

◀ USA better

#67

#40

Defense

TROY better ▶

#17

−0.3 #94

Turnovers

TROY better ▶

+0.3 #49

69 plays #50

Pace

◀ USA faster

68 plays #64

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USA has the ball

Even matchup

	USA off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	33.5 #31	16.9 #17	Even
Yards / play	6.56 #21	4.72 #17	Even
PPA / play	+0.26 #19	−0.08 #7	Even
Success rate	44% #52	37% #28	TROY

When TROY has the ball

Advantage: USA defense

	TROY off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	27.1 #72	21.1 #40	USA
Yards / play	6.52 #24	5.11 #34	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #64	+0.09 #61	Even
Success rate	39% #107	37% #25	USA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

USA scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USA scored	6.5 #55	8.9 #54	15.4 #59	9.0 #16	9.1 #20	18.1 #12
TROY allowed	3.4 #28	6.4 #47	9.8 #31	2.5 #7	4.6 #28	7.1 #10

TROY scoring against the USA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	4.3 #107	9.1 #47	13.4 #78	6.0 #71	7.8 #44	13.8 #56
USA allowed	3.0 #22	8.5 #92	11.5 #53	4.1 #32	5.5 #48	9.6 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.