Troy @ UL Monroe: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 2:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at UL Monroe · Conference game

Weather at kickoff65°F8 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Troy

7-2 · Power #29

▲ winner

Final

UL Monroe

2-7 · Power #129

final

Closing spread

TROY -21.5

✓ TROY W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

TROY 33–12 ULM

✓ TROY (94%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTROY -21.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTROY -21.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close45.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTROY -21.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TROY as a 21.5-point road favorite at ULM, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: TROY won 45–14; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 45.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 29.3 against an average line of 21.1; 49.3 points a game (usually 55.5). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BOIS @ NEV 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-21	41–3	W	U47.5
Very close	LIB @ MASS 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & spread	-22.5	42–24	L	O45.5
Close	TROY @ ULM 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & rest	-23.5	16–29	L	U49.5
Close	DUKE @ CONN 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar total & spread	-22	41–7	W	O45
Close	PSU @ RUTG 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & situation	-18.5	55–10	W	O45
Close	UAB @ USM 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar total & rest	-17	34–0	W	U43.25
Close	SMU @ TEM 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-24	55–0	W	O53
Close	ARMY @ MASS 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & rest	-20	44–7	W	O45.5
Close	CLEM @ BC 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-21	31–3	W	U48.75
Close	UK @ VAN 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-21.5	34–17	L	U52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TROY WWWWW	5-4	56%	3-1	4-3
ULM LWWLL	4-5	44%	2-3	4-3

Venue/role: TROY away, as favorite; ULM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TROY U–UUU	2-6	25%	7-2
ULM –UOOU	3-4	43%	2-7

Went over in Q4. Of 99 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TROYlast 9	7-2 78%	5-4 56%	2-6 25%
ULMlast 9	2-7 22%	4-5 44%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TROY 11–8 ULM TROY leads · 19 games since 1995 · TROY has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TROY0.0 →+7.1▲ 7.1#28

ULM+0.7 →−15.0▼ 15.7#128

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

TROY

Longer bar = better

ULM

#68

Offense

◀ TROY better

#115

#17

Defense

◀ TROY better

#107

+0.2 #51

Turnovers

ULM better ▶

+0.4 #36

68 plays #61

Pace

◀ TROY faster

63 plays #114

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TROY has the ball

Advantage: TROY offense

	TROY off	ULM def	Edge
Points / game	27.2 #73	31.9 #114	TROY
Yards / play	6.47 #28	5.98 #103	TROY
PPA / play	+0.13 #67	+0.16 #98	TROY
Success rate	39% #104	45% #112	Even

When ULM has the ball

Advantage: TROY defense

	ULM off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	18.9 #121	16.1 #12	TROY
Yards / play	5.41 #87	4.72 #16	TROY
PPA / play	0.00 #117	−0.07 #7	TROY
Success rate	35% #133	38% #33	TROY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TROY scoring against the ULM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	3.8 #112	9.7 #38	13.4 #75	5.3 #87	8.4 #31	13.8 #55
ULM allowed	8.0 #116	10.1 #112	18.1 #120	4.2 #34	9.6 #117	13.8 #87

ULM scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ULM scored	4.2 #102	6.0 #107	10.2 #111	3.6 #118	5.1 #106	8.7 #121
TROY allowed	3.8 #29	5.7 #28	9.4 #27	2.2 #7	4.4 #21	6.7 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.