Arkansas State @ South Alabama: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 5:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at South Alabama · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F9 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Arkansas State

5-4 · Power #107

final

Final

South Alabama

4-5 · Power #49

▲ winner

Closing spread

USA -14

✓ ARST W

Total

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

ARST 19–34 USA

✓ USA (86%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSA -14

Total55

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUSA -14

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close55

Line context

Home favorites of 12–16 since 2023: won 89%, covered 47% (54 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSA -14

Total55

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USA as a 14-point home favorite against ARST, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: USA won 21–14; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 55, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.2 against an average line of 14.2; 48.8 points a game (usually 55.6). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UL vs USA 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-14	38–10	W	U53.5
Very close	TOL vs BALL 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-13.5	28–21	L	U53.5
Very close	UL vs GAST 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-13.5	21–17	L	U53.5
Very close	TOL vs NIU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & season form	-13	20–22	L	U51
Very close	TROY vs ARST 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar season form & rest	-15.5	37–3	W	U52
Very close	UCF vs TULN 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-13.5	14–10	L	U57
Very close	WMU vs BALL 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-12.5	20–45	L	O57.5
Very close	LIB vs LT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-14.5	56–30	W	O59
Very close	BOIS vs USU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-16.5	42–23	W	O52
Very close	UCF vs NAVY 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-15.25	14–17	L	U53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARST WLLWW	5-4	56%	2-2	4-4
USA LWWLL	3-6	33%	1-3	2-3

Venue/role: ARST away, as underdog; USA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARST O–UOU	3-4	43%	5-4
USA O–OUU	3-4	43%	4-5

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 8. 51% of games with totals 51–59 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARSTlast 9	5-4 56%	5-4 56%	3-4 43%
USAlast 9	4-5 44%	3-6 33%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARST−20.5 →−11.2▲ 9.3#115

USA−6.2 →+3.9▲ 10.1#43

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

ARST

Longer bar = better

USA

#75

Offense

USA better ▶

#38

#105

Defense

USA better ▶

#45

−0.2 #85

Turnovers

Even

−0.2 #90

65 plays #89

Pace

USA faster ▶

68 plays #63

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARST has the ball

Advantage: USA defense

	ARST off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	24.6 #85	21.9 #42	USA
Yards / play	5.84 #62	5.22 #43	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #66	+0.09 #65	Even
Success rate	41% #86	37% #29	USA

When USA has the ball

Advantage: USA offense

	USA off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	30.9 #43	31.9 #113	USA
Yards / play	6.39 #32	6.29 #126	USA
PPA / play	+0.23 #28	+0.20 #115	USA
Success rate	44% #50	42% #65	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ARST scoring against the USA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARST scored	7.7 #33	3.9 #130	11.6 #99	6.2 #64	6.8 #71	13.0 #68
USA allowed	2.7 #13	9.1 #96	11.8 #53	3.7 #23	6.4 #66	10.1 #36

USA scoring against the ARST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USA scored	6.6 #52	7.9 #69	14.4 #67	8.0 #27	8.4 #32	16.4 #27
ARST allowed	6.4 #98	10.4 #118	16.9 #111	7.2 #107	7.8 #94	15.0 #105

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.