Stanford @ Oregon State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 5:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Oregon State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff55°F7 mphgusts 16Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Stanford

3-6 · Power #106

final

Final

Oregon State

7-2 · Power #20

▲ winner

Closing spread

ORST -21.5

✓ ORST W

Total

▲ Over · 79 pts

Model before kickoff

STAN 17–38 ORST

✓ ORST (94%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseORST -21.5

Total52

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseORST -21.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close52

Line context

Home favorites of 19.5–23.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 43% (46 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseORST -21.5

Total52

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORST as a 21.5-point home favorite against STAN, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: ORST won 62–17; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 79 points went over 52, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

2 of 825%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 25.2 against an average line of 22; 47.8 points a game (usually 55.5). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ASU vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-20	38–15	W	P53
Very close	SMU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-20.5	69–10	W	O55
Very close	UTAH vs COLO 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-24	28–13	L	U52.5
Very close	PITT vs GT 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-21.5	21–26	L	P47
Very close	UTAH vs STAN 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-24	42–7	W	U54
Very close	MICH vs IU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-20.5	29–7	W	U51
Very close	SMU vs CLT 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-23.5	34–16	L	U53.5
Very close	ND vs NAVY 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-21	34–6	W	U47.5
Very close	APP vs GASO 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-24.5	27–3	L	U55
Very close	ISU vs OHIO 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & season form	-20	43–10	W	O48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
STAN LWLWW	5-4	56%	3-1	4-3
ORST WWWLL	5-4	56%	3-1	5-4

Venue/role: STAN away, as underdog; ORST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
STAN UOUOU	3-6	33%	3-6
ORST U–OUU	3-4	43%	7-2

Went over in Q3. Of 156 earlier overs in games with totals 48–56, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STANlast 9	3-6 33%	5-4 56%	3-6 33%
ORSTlast 9	7-2 78%	5-4 56%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

STAN 59–28 ORST (3 tied) STAN leads · 90 games since 1919 · ORST has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

STAN+2.6 →−6.8▼ 9.4#101

ORST+11.2 →+11.4▲ 0.2#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

STAN

Longer bar = better

ORST

#99

Offense

ORST better ▶

#14

#129

Defense

ORST better ▶

#41

−0.2 #84

Turnovers

ORST better ▶

+0.7 #24

71 plays #28

Pace

◀ STAN faster

65 plays #93

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When STAN has the ball

Advantage: ORST defense

	STAN off	ORST def	Edge
Points / game	21.3 #109	20.9 #35	ORST
Yards / play	5.06 #112	5.12 #36	ORST
PPA / play	+0.09 #82	−0.01 #21	ORST
Success rate	40% #92	42% #72	Even

When ORST has the ball

Advantage: ORST offense

	ORST off	STAN def	Edge
Points / game	35.2 #20	34.1 #124	ORST
Yards / play	6.77 #16	6.32 #127	ORST
PPA / play	+0.29 #11	+0.26 #131	ORST
Success rate	50% #9	50% #135	ORST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

STAN scoring against the ORST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
STAN scored	2.2 #131	5.2 #121	7.4 #130	6.9 #52	5.9 #94	12.8 #72
ORST allowed	1.9 #5	6.3 #42	8.2 #16	3.8 #24	8.9 #105	12.7 #78

ORST scoring against the STAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORST scored	8.0 #28	9.8 #37	17.8 #27	7.1 #47	10.3 #8	17.4 #15
STAN allowed	6.6 #100	12.9 #132	19.4 #128	5.8 #67	8.1 #97	13.9 #88

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.