Tulsa @ SMU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at SMU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff65°F6 mphgusts 16Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Tulsa

3-4 · Power #118

final

Final

SMU

5-2 · Power #22

▲ winner

Closing spread

SMU -20.5

✓ SMU W

Total

▲ Over · 79 pts

Model before kickoff

TLSA 17–38 SMU

✓ SMU (93%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSMU -20.5

Total55

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSMU -20.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close55

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSMU -20.5

Total55

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SMU as a 20.5-point home favorite against TLSA, the favorite won 9, covered 3, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: SMU won 69–10; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 79 points went over 55, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 17.4 against an average line of 20.7; 53 points a game (usually 56.4). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UCF vs GT 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-21	27–10	L	U56.5
Very close	ASU vs EMU 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & total	-20.5	21–30	L	U56.5
Very close	LIB vs MTSU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-20	41–13	W	U58.75
Very close	TOL vs WMU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total	-21.5	49–31	L	O52.5
Very close	ASU vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-20	38–15	W	P53
Very close	NCST vs LT 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-17.75	34–27	L	O56
Very close	PSU vs MSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & season form	-19	35–16	P	U54.5
Very close	UL vs TXST 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-21	45–0	W	U58
Very close	SMU vs CLT 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & total	-23.5	34–16	L	U53.5
Very close	CIN vs TLSA 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-22.5	28–20	L	U56

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TLSA LWWWL	3-3-1	50%	2-0-1	2-1-1
SMU WLLWW	4-3	57%	2-1	4-1

Venue/role: TLSA away, as underdog; SMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TLSA OUO–U	2-4	33%	3-4
SMU OUUUO	2-4	33%	5-2

Went over in Q3. Of 93 earlier overs in games with totals 51–59, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TLSAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-3-1 50%	2-4 33%
SMUlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TLSA+3.9 →−9.0▼ 12.9#108

SMU+10.7 →+8.9▼ 1.8#24

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

TLSA

Longer bar = better

SMU

#86

Offense

SMU better ▶

#49

#105

Defense

SMU better ▶

−0.9 #126

Turnovers

SMU better ▶

−0.3 #92

70 plays #45

Pace

SMU faster ▶

73 plays #22

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TLSA has the ball

Advantage: SMU defense

	TLSA off	SMU def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #96	14.6 #9	SMU
Yards / play	5.37 #91	4.25 #6	SMU
PPA / play	+0.07 #93	−0.07 #7	SMU
Success rate	42% #64	34% #11	SMU

When SMU has the ball

Advantage: SMU offense

	SMU off	TLSA def	Edge
Points / game	36.4 #15	31.1 #111	SMU
Yards / play	6.02 #51	6.15 #114	SMU
PPA / play	+0.17 #49	+0.17 #101	SMU
Success rate	41% #82	44% #95	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TLSA scoring against the SMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TLSA scored	2.7 #124	10.4 #33	13.1 #82	3.7 #118	6.9 #63	10.6 #106
SMU allowed	2.0 #7	3.9 #11	5.9 #6	3.7 #28	5.0 #42	8.7 #22

SMU scoring against the TLSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SMU scored	10.9 #8	9.3 #49	20.1 #11	6.9 #53	9.4 #22	16.3 #29
TLSA allowed	11.4 #130	5.0 #22	16.4 #110	10.1 #132	4.6 #33	14.7 #99

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.