Memphis @ North Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 3:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at North Texas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff64°F5 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Memphis

5-2 · Power #50

▲ winner

Final

North Texas

3-4 · Power #103

final

Closing spread

MEM -6.5

✓ UNT W

Total

69.5

▲ Over · 87 pts

Model before kickoff

MEM 37–30 UNT

✓ MEM (69%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMEM -6.5

Total69.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMEM -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close69.5

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 60% (42 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMEM -6.5

Total69.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MEM as a 6.5-point road favorite at UNT, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: MEM won 45–42; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 87 points went over 69.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.8 against an average line of 7.4; 64.6 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	APP @ GASO 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	48–51	L	O66
Very close	WKU @ MTSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	35–17	W	U67.5
Very close	WMU @ EMU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	21–22	L	U66
Very close	BYU @ USU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-8.5	34–20	W	U65.75
Very close	TCU @ WVU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-7	41–31	W	O69.75
Close	MEM @ UAB 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	45–21	W	O62
Close	UCF @ LOU 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-7	35–42	L	O67.5
Close	UNC @ DUKE 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar total & situation	-7	38–35	L	O70
Close	FLA @ MIZ 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar total & rest	-9	23–24	L	U69
Close	WKU @ FAU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	32–31	L	O62.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MEM LLPLW	2-4-1	33%	2-0	2-2-1
UNT WLWWW	4-3	57%	1-2	3-0

Venue/role: MEM away, as favorite; UNT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MEM OOOUO	5-2	71%	5-2
UNT OO–UU	3-2	60%	3-4

Went over in Q4. Of 7 earlier overs in games with totals 65.5–73.5, 43% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MEMlast 7	5-2 71%	2-4-1 33%	5-2 71%
UNTlast 7	3-4 43%	4-3 57%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MEM+6.5 →+2.7▼ 3.8#49

UNT−15.5 →−7.7▲ 7.8#101

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

MEM

Longer bar = better

UNT

#37

Offense

Even

#38

#52

Defense

◀ MEM better

#124

+0.4 #36

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #49

70 plays #42

Pace

UNT faster ▶

74 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MEM has the ball

Advantage: MEM offense

	MEM off	UNT def	Edge
Points / game	35.6 #20	35.4 #127	MEM
Yards / play	5.96 #55	6.22 #119	MEM
PPA / play	+0.19 #39	+0.21 #120	MEM
Success rate	46% #34	49% #130	MEM

When UNT has the ball

Even matchup

	UNT off	MEM def	Edge
Points / game	34.6 #25	22.7 #48	UNT
Yards / play	6.35 #35	5.68 #81	UNT
PPA / play	+0.18 #46	−0.02 #20	MEM
Success rate	44% #46	41% #59	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MEM scoring against the UNT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MEM scored	5.3 #82	12.6 #11	17.9 #29	10.4 #7	7.3 #53	17.7 #15
UNT allowed	6.0 #85	12.4 #131	18.4 #121	8.1 #115	8.9 #111	17.0 #123

UNT scoring against the MEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNT scored	9.7 #11	8.7 #57	18.4 #23	8.0 #35	8.1 #33	16.1 #29
MEM allowed	7.4 #114	5.3 #25	12.7 #69	3.0 #14	7.0 #81	10.0 #40

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.