Memphis @ UAB: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at UAB · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F4 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Memphis

4-2 · Power #50

▲ winner

Final

UAB

2-5 · Power #102

final

Closing spread

MEM -7.5

✓ MEM W

Total

61.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

MEM 35–28 UAB

✓ MEM (69%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMEM -7.5

Total61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMEM -7.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close61.5

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–9.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 62% (41 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMEM -7.5

Total61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MEM as a 7.5-point road favorite at UAB, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 9 went over the total.

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This game: MEM won 45–21; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 61.5, as in 9 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 49%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 6.6 against an average line of 7.1; 68.4 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL @ NIU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	52–32	W	O59
Very close	WKU @ FAU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-7.5	32–31	L	O62.25
Very close	FRES @ UNLV 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-8.5	37–30	L	O62
Very close	UTSA @ UNT 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-8.5	23–45	L	O59.5
Very close	NEV @ HAW 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	21–24	L	U63
Very close	BOIS @ CSU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	30–31	L	O60
Very close	UTSA @ LT 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	45–16	W	O59.5
Very close	APP @ GASO 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	48–51	L	O66
Very close	WMU @ NIU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	42–21	W	O58.5
Very close	TOL @ EMU 2020 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-6.5	45–28	W	O62

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MEM WLLPL	1-4-1	20%	1-0	1-2-1
UAB LWWWL	4-3	57%	2-1	3-2

Venue/role: MEM away, as favorite; UAB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MEM UOOOU	4-2	67%	4-2
UAB OOUOU	4-3	57%	2-5

Went over in Q4. Of 42 earlier overs in games with totals 57.5–65.5, 26% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MEMlast 6	4-2 67%	1-4-1 20%	4-2 67%
UABlast 7	2-5 29%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MEM+6.5 →+1.4▼ 5.1#54

UAB+0.5 →−5.6▼ 6.1#94

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

MEM

Longer bar = better

UAB

#47

Offense

Even

#42

#54

Defense

◀ MEM better

#125

−0.2 #85

Turnovers

UAB better ▶

+0.3 #47

70 plays #44

Pace

UAB faster ▶

74 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MEM has the ball

Advantage: MEM offense

	MEM off	UAB def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #36	36.6 #130	MEM
Yards / play	6.13 #51	6.29 #122	MEM
PPA / play	+0.17 #52	+0.21 #118	MEM
Success rate	44% #47	48% #129	MEM

When UAB has the ball

Even matchup

	UAB off	MEM def	Edge
Points / game	30.1 #56	23.0 #52	Even
Yards / play	5.97 #58	5.68 #80	UAB
PPA / play	+0.24 #30	+0.01 #33	Even
Success rate	48% #24	39% #49	UAB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MEM scoring against the UAB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MEM scored	5.0 #93	12.3 #15	17.3 #45	9.3 #17	7.3 #56	16.7 #27
UAB allowed	9.4 #124	9.9 #107	19.3 #126	8.4 #113	8.9 #110	17.3 #120

UAB scoring against the MEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UAB scored	5.4 #78	12.4 #14	17.9 #36	5.4 #86	6.9 #63	12.3 #86
MEM allowed	6.3 #94	5.0 #25	11.3 #54	3.5 #23	8.2 #99	11.7 #60

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.