Florida Atlantic @ UAB: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 3:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at UAB · Conference game

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Florida Atlantic

4-4 · Power #105

final

Final

UAB

2-6 · Power #102

▲ winner

Closing spread

Pick’em

✓ UAB W

Total

▲ Over · 87 pts

Model before kickoff

FAU 29–30 UAB

✓ UAB (52%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePick’em

Total59

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FAU WLWLW	3-5	38%	3-1	—
UAB WWWLL	4-4	50%	2-2	—

Venue/role: FAU away; UAB home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FAU U–OUO	4-3	57%	4-4
UAB OUOUO	5-3	63%	2-6

Went over in Q3. Of 80 earlier overs in games with totals 55–63, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FAUlast 8	4-4 50%	3-5 38%	4-3 57%
UABlast 8	2-6 25%	4-4 50%	5-3 63%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FAU−0.2 →−6.0▼ 5.8#97

UAB+0.5 →−6.3▼ 6.8#100

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

FAU

Longer bar = better

UAB

#92

Offense

UAB better ▶

#44

#63

Defense

◀ FAU better

#124

−0.1 #81

Turnovers

Even

−0.3 #86

67 plays #70

Pace

UAB faster ▶

73 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FAU has the ball

Advantage: FAU offense

	FAU off	UAB def	Edge
Points / game	25.9 #78	37.6 #131	FAU
Yards / play	5.22 #96	6.11 #113	Even
PPA / play	+0.06 #98	+0.22 #121	FAU
Success rate	40% #96	49% #131	FAU

When UAB has the ball

Even matchup

	UAB off	FAU def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #64	23.9 #56	Even
Yards / play	5.93 #55	5.15 #38	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #42	+0.09 #63	UAB
Success rate	49% #16	44% #95	UAB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

FAU scoring against the UAB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FAU scored	7.8 #33	6.9 #92	14.6 #65	5.6 #85	5.6 #96	11.3 #96
UAB allowed	9.1 #127	10.4 #116	19.5 #125	9.5 #127	8.6 #106	18.1 #129

UAB scoring against the FAU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UAB scored	6.5 #54	11.8 #17	18.3 #24	4.8 #102	6.0 #88	10.8 #99
FAU allowed	4.6 #52	9.9 #109	14.5 #96	5.6 #70	3.8 #12	9.4 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.