SMU @ Rice: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Rice · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F6 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

SMU

6-2 · Power #22

▲ winner

Final

Rice

4-4 · Power #90

final

Closing spread

SMU -12.5

✓ RICE W

Total

58.5

▲ Over · 67 pts

Model before kickoff

SMU 35–22 RICE

✓ SMU (82%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSMU -12.5

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSMU -12.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close58.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSMU -12.5

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SMU as a 12.5-point road favorite at RICE, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: SMU won 36–31; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 67 points went over 58.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 13.3 against an average line of 12.5; 57.3 points a game (usually 55.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PITT @ SYR 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-12.25	31–14	W	U58.25
Very close	CIN @ TLSA 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-10	31–21	P	U59
Very close	CIN @ ECU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-14.5	35–13	W	U56.5
Close	CCU @ TROY 2020 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & rest	-12.75	42–38	L	O52.5
Close	CCU @ USA 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & rest	-15	27–21	L	U55
Close	JMU @ ARST 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-11.5	42–20	W	O55
Close	WASH @ ASU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	38–45	L	O56
Close	MSST @ ARIZ 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & total	-12.5	39–17	W	U58
Close	OKST @ TTU 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-10	23–0	W	U55
Close	ND @ BC 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-13	45–31	W	O51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SMU LLWWW	5-3	63%	2-2	5-1
RICE LWLWW	6-2	75%	4-1	4-0

Venue/role: SMU away, as favorite; RICE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SMU UUUOO	3-4	43%	6-2
RICE OU–UO	4-3	57%	4-4

Went over in Q3. Of 87 earlier overs in games with totals 54.5–62.5, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SMUlast 8	6-2 75%	5-3 63%	3-4 43%
RICElast 8	4-4 50%	6-2 75%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SMU+10.7 →+11.2▲ 0.5#18

RICE−10.1 →−4.3▲ 5.8#88

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

SMU

Longer bar = better

RICE

#31

Offense

Even

#28

Defense

◀ SMU better

#82

0.0 #69

Turnovers

◀ SMU better

−0.3 #90

72 plays #21

Pace

◀ SMU faster

63 plays #107

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SMU has the ball

Advantage: SMU offense

	SMU off	RICE def	Edge
Points / game	40.5 #7	27.8 #87	SMU
Yards / play	6.42 #31	5.80 #87	SMU
PPA / play	+0.23 #24	+0.08 #59	SMU
Success rate	42% #61	44% #94	SMU

When RICE has the ball

Advantage: SMU defense

	RICE off	SMU def	Edge
Points / game	33.3 #32	14.0 #5	SMU
Yards / play	6.26 #42	4.14 #3	SMU
PPA / play	+0.28 #15	−0.11 #2	Even
Success rate	48% #21	34% #7	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

SMU scoring against the RICE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SMU scored	13.0 #1	11.1 #21	24.1 #5	7.8 #38	8.6 #30	16.4 #30
RICE allowed	2.9 #18	10.8 #121	13.6 #81	5.4 #61	7.1 #85	12.5 #76

RICE scoring against the SMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RICE scored	12.1 #6	5.3 #117	17.4 #33	7.4 #43	6.6 #71	14.0 #57
SMU allowed	2.1 #6	3.4 #7	5.5 #4	3.3 #18	5.3 #46	8.5 #17

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.