Rice @ UTSA: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at UTSA · Conference game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Rice

4-5 · Power #90

final

Final

UTSA

6-3 · Power #56

▲ winner

Closing spread

UTSA -14

✓ UTSA W

Total

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

RICE 23–35 UTSA

✓ UTSA (82%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUTSA -14

Total55

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUTSA -14

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close55

Line context

Home favorites of 12–16 since 2023: won 89%, covered 47% (56 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUTSA -14

Total55

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTSA as a 14-point home favorite against RICE, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: UTSA won 34–14; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 55, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 19 against an average line of 13.7; 49.8 points a game (usually 55.6). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	JMU vs CCU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-15.5	47–7	W	O53
Very close	TOL vs BALL 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-13.5	28–21	L	U53.5
Very close	FRES vs WYO 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-14	30–0	W	U50.5
Very close	UL vs GAST 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-13.5	21–17	L	U53.5
Close	SC vs JXST 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar total & spread	-15.5	38–28	L	O55
Close	ORST vs STAN 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar total & rest	-12.5	35–14	W	U56.25
Close	APP vs TROY 2020 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-14	47–10	W	O50.5
Close	UL vs USA 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & rest	-14	38–10	W	U53.5
Close	VT vs BC 2020 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & rest	-13	40–14	W	U61.75
Close	USA vs UL 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar total	-11.5	20–33	L	U55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RICE WLWWW	7-2	78%	2-1	5-0
UTSA WWWLP	3-5-1	38%	1-3	3-4-1

Venue/role: RICE away, as underdog; UTSA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
RICE U–UOO	5-3	63%	4-5
UTSA –UUOU	2-5-1	29%	6-3

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 51% of games with totals 51–59 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RICElast 9	4-5 44%	7-2 78%	5-3 63%
UTSAlast 9	6-3 67%	3-5-1 38%	2-5-1 29%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

RICE−10.1 →−4.1▲ 6.0#87

UTSA+0.7 →+0.1▼ 0.6#62

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

RICE

Longer bar = better

UTSA

#31

Offense

◀ RICE better

#61

#81

Defense

UTSA better ▶

#52

−0.4 #106

Turnovers

UTSA better ▶

−0.1 #84

62 plays #114

Pace

UTSA faster ▶

72 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When RICE has the ball

Even matchup

	RICE off	UTSA def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #30	25.8 #67	RICE
Yards / play	6.14 #44	5.18 #41	Even
PPA / play	+0.26 #17	+0.07 #52	RICE
Success rate	46% #34	40% #46	Even

When UTSA has the ball

Even matchup

	UTSA off	RICE def	Edge
Points / game	31.2 #41	28.7 #97	UTSA
Yards / play	5.67 #72	5.82 #86	Even
PPA / play	+0.14 #61	+0.08 #55	Even
Success rate	42% #68	43% #86	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

RICE scoring against the UTSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RICE scored	11.6 #6	6.2 #101	17.8 #28	7.3 #43	6.2 #86	13.6 #53
UTSA allowed	9.2 #126	7.2 #69	16.4 #110	2.7 #9	6.7 #73	9.3 #24

UTSA scoring against the RICE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTSA scored	7.7 #33	10.2 #27	17.9 #25	6.3 #61	7.0 #64	13.3 #61
RICE allowed	4.1 #37	10.7 #122	14.8 #96	5.8 #67	6.7 #73	12.4 #73

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.