South Florida @ Memphis: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 3:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Memphis · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F6 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

South Florida

4-4 · Power #95

final

Final

Memphis

6-2 · Power #50

▲ winner

Closing spread

MEM -13.5

✓ USF W

Total

▲ Over · 109 pts

Model before kickoff

USF 25–39 MEM

✓ MEM (84%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMEM -13.5

Total68

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMEM -13.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close68

Line context

Home favorites of 11.5–15.5 since 2023: won 88%, covered 48% (41 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMEM -13.5

Total68

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MEM as a 13.5-point home favorite against USF, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MEM won 59–50; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 109 points went over 68, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.2 against an average line of 14; 69.4 points a game (usually 55.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SMU vs TULN 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-14	55–26	W	O70.5
Very close	UL vs ARST 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-14.25	27–20	L	U68.25
Very close	WMU vs EMU 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-13.5	42–53	L	O67.5
Very close	HOU vs TLSA 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-13	30–37	L	P67
Very close	NEV vs HAW 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14	34–17	W	U61.5
Very close	WASH vs ARIZ 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & spread	-14.5	49–39	L	O71.5
Close	MEM vs UNT 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar total & spread	-12.75	44–34	L	O68.5
Close	BSU vs CSU 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-14	52–21	W	O62.5
Close	WAKE vs DUKE 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-16.5	45–7	W	U71.5
Close	APP vs ARST 2020 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-13.5	45–17	W	U69.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USF WWLLW	4-4	50%	2-2	4-1
MEM LPLWL	2-5-1	29%	0-3-1	2-3-1

Venue/role: USF away, as underdog; MEM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USF OOOOU	4-3	57%	4-4
MEM OOUOO	6-2	75%	6-2

Went over in Q3. Of 12 earlier overs in games with totals 64–72, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USFlast 8	4-4 50%	4-4 50%	4-3 57%
MEMlast 8	6-2 75%	2-5-1 29%	6-2 75%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

USF 4–10 MEM MEM leads · 14 games since 2001 · MEM has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USF−3.1 →−9.2▼ 6.1#108

MEM+6.5 →+2.4▼ 4.1#49

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

USF

Longer bar = better

MEM

#94

Offense

MEM better ▶

#28

#103

Defense

MEM better ▶

#72

−0.1 #79

Turnovers

MEM better ▶

+0.5 #36

80 plays #1

Pace

◀ USF faster

70 plays #44

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USF has the ball

Advantage: MEM defense

	USF off	MEM def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #69	25.1 #64	Even
Yards / play	5.48 #84	6.01 #104	Even
PPA / play	+0.02 #108	+0.04 #43	MEM
Success rate	38% #116	42% #76	MEM

When MEM has the ball

Advantage: MEM offense

	MEM off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	36.8 #15	34.3 #125	MEM
Yards / play	6.30 #39	6.34 #124	MEM
PPA / play	+0.22 #30	+0.19 #108	MEM
Success rate	47% #26	41% #56	MEM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

USF scoring against the MEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USF scored	7.8 #33	7.0 #88	14.8 #63	5.3 #95	8.0 #38	13.3 #63
MEM allowed	7.4 #112	5.0 #21	12.4 #60	4.0 #29	8.8 #108	12.8 #76

MEM scoring against the USF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MEM scored	6.4 #57	13.1 #9	19.5 #17	9.1 #14	8.1 #34	17.3 #17
USF allowed	7.9 #118	9.4 #101	17.3 #114	8.6 #120	8.4 #96	17.0 #121

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.