Louisiana @ Arkansas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 3:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Arkansas State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F6 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Louisiana

5-3 · Power #87

final

Final

Arkansas State

4-4 · Power #107

▲ winner

Closing spread

UL -7

✓ ARST W

Total

▼ Under · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

UL 33–25 ARST

✗ UL (71%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUL -7

Total61

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUL -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close61

Line context

Road favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 64%, covered 55% (44 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUL -7

Total61

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UL as a 7-point road favorite at ARST, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 8 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: ARST won 37–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 54 points stayed under 61, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 48%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 7.6 against an average line of 7.3; 63.4 points a game (usually 54). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CMU @ EMU 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	31–23	W	U59
Very close	BOIS @ CSU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	30–31	L	O60
Very close	TOL @ OHIO 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	35–23	W	O57.5
Very close	WKU @ LT 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	35–28	W	O59
Very close	TOL @ EMU 2020 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	45–28	W	O62
Very close	CCU @ ARST 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-8.5	27–17	W	U59.5
Very close	UTSA @ UNT 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-8.5	23–45	L	O59.5
Very close	TOL @ NIU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	52–32	W	O59
Very close	WKU @ FAU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	32–31	L	O62.25
Very close	MEM @ UAB 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-7.5	45–21	W	O62

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UL LLWLW	3-5	38%	2-2	1-4
ARST WWLLW	4-4	50%	2-2	3-4

Venue/role: UL away, as favorite; ARST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UL OOUUU	4-4	50%	5-3
ARST OO–UO	3-3	50%	4-4

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 43% of games with totals 57–65 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ULlast 8	5-3 63%	3-5 38%	4-4 50%
ARSTlast 8	4-4 50%	4-4 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UL+1.8 →−1.8▼ 3.6#75

ARST−20.5 →−13.6▲ 6.9#123

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

Longer bar = better

ARST

#36

Offense

◀ UL better

#86

#82

Defense

◀ UL better

#112

+0.1 #64

Turnovers

◀ UL better

−0.5 #107

65 plays #94

Pace

Even

63 plays #105

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UL has the ball

Advantage: UL offense

	UL off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	32.9 #34	33.8 #122	UL
Yards / play	6.44 #29	6.39 #125	UL
PPA / play	+0.19 #44	+0.23 #122	UL
Success rate	46% #36	43% #80	UL

When ARST has the ball

Even matchup

	ARST off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #98	26.9 #81	Even
Yards / play	5.92 #56	5.43 #58	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #75	+0.11 #77	Even
Success rate	38% #115	45% #111	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UL scoring against the ARST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UL scored	4.8 #93	11.1 #21	15.9 #50	8.9 #19	8.1 #34	17.0 #20
ARST allowed	6.4 #90	11.4 #124	17.8 #117	7.3 #104	8.8 #108	16.0 #112

ARST scoring against the UL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARST scored	6.9 #47	3.6 #132	10.5 #111	6.1 #67	6.4 #76	12.5 #76
UL allowed	3.4 #26	6.3 #44	9.6 #30	7.8 #112	9.5 #117	17.3 #123

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.