James Madison @ Georgia State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Georgia State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F8 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

James Madison

8-0 · Power #28

▲ winner

Final

Georgia State

6-2 · Power #91

final

Closing spread

JMU -6

✓ JMU W

Total

▲ Over · 56 pts

Model before kickoff

JMU 29–24 GAST

✓ JMU (66%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJMU -6

Total52

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseJMU -6

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close52

Line context

Road favorites of 5–7 since 2023: won 67%, covered 55% (46 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJMU -6

Total52

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JMU as a 6-point road favorite at GAST, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: JMU won 42–14; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 56 points went over 52, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.3 against an average line of 5.8; 54.5 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ORST @ ASU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & situation	-7.5	31–7	W	U53.5
Very close	TOL @ CMU 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-5	23–26	L	U53
Very close	JMU @ MRSH 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-5	20–9	W	U49.25
Very close	MRSH @ GASO 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-6	23–10	W	U52.5
Very close	FRES @ USU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & season form	-5.5	37–32	L	O56
Very close	PSU @ MSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-4.5	27–30	L	O51.5
Very close	UL @ TROY 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	35–21	W	O48
Very close	TOL @ BUFF 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-7	27–34	L	O56
Very close	FAU @ MTSU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-5.5	21–49	L	O51
Very close	JMU @ USU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & rest	-5	45–38	W	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JMU WWWWL	5-3	63%	3-1	4-3
GAST WLWWL	5-3	63%	2-2	2-0

Venue/role: JMU away, as favorite; GAST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JMU OOUUO	4-4	50%	8-0
GAST UUOUO	4-4	50%	6-2

Went over in Q4. Of 138 earlier overs in games with totals 48–56, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JMUlast 8	8-0 100%	5-3 63%	4-4 50%
GASTlast 8	6-2 75%	5-3 63%	4-4 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

JMU 6–0 GAST JMU leads · 6 games since 2012 · JMU has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JMU+5.1 →+5.5▲ 0.4#36

GAST−3.6 →−1.1▲ 2.5#69

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

JMU

Longer bar = better

GAST

#52

Offense

Even

#51

#16

Defense

◀ JMU better

#68

+0.5 #34

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #43

66 plays #77

Pace

GAST faster ▶

68 plays #62

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JMU has the ball

Even matchup

	JMU off	GAST def	Edge
Points / game	32.1 #40	25.5 #67	JMU
Yards / play	6.14 #47	5.84 #91	JMU
PPA / play	+0.13 #65	+0.11 #73	Even
Success rate	44% #54	39% #40	Even

When GAST has the ball

Advantage: JMU defense

	GAST off	JMU def	Edge
Points / game	30.4 #55	20.3 #30	JMU
Yards / play	6.12 #48	4.77 #19	JMU
PPA / play	+0.17 #51	−0.04 #13	JMU
Success rate	44% #49	32% #3	JMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

JMU scoring against the GAST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JMU scored	9.4 #13	8.9 #55	18.3 #25	8.0 #30	5.9 #95	13.9 #58
GAST allowed	2.9 #19	7.6 #79	10.5 #38	9.4 #126	5.6 #51	15.0 #104

GAST scoring against the JMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GAST scored	7.0 #47	10.5 #28	17.5 #32	6.5 #60	6.4 #79	12.9 #73
JMU allowed	1.3 #3	6.8 #55	8.0 #10	6.8 #91	5.5 #49	12.3 #67

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.