Arizona @ Colorado: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 2:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Colorado · Conference game

Weather at kickoff53°F3 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Arizona

6-3 · Power #18

▲ winner

Final

Colorado

4-5 · Power #72

final

Closing spread

ARIZ -8

✓ COLO W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

ARIZ 35–28 COLO

✓ ARIZ (70%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseARIZ -8

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseARIZ -8

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close55.5

Line context

Road favorites of 6–10 since 2023: won 68%, covered 55% (65 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseARIZ -8

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARIZ as an 8-point road favorite at COLO, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: ARIZ won 34–31; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 55.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.4 against an average line of 7.8; 52.6 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ORST @ ASU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	31–7	W	U53.5
Very close	BAY @ TCU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	28–30	L	O57
Very close	ASU @ ORST 2020 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & total	-7.5	46–33	W	O54.5
Very close	KSU @ WVU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-8	48–31	W	O54.5
Very close	TULN @ TLSA 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-6.5	27–13	W	U56
Very close	JMU @ GAST 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6	42–14	W	O53
Very close	COLO @ ARIZ 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	24–13	W	U57
Very close	ORE @ STAN 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-8.5	24–31	L	U57.5
Very close	OKST @ TTU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-10	23–0	W	U55
Very close	TOL @ BUFF 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-7	27–34	L	O56

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARIZ WWWWW	8-1	89%	3-1	2-1
COLO WPLWW	5-3-1	63%	3-2	4-1

Venue/role: ARIZ away, as favorite; COLO home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARIZ U–UUU	0-8	0%	6-3
COLO OUOUU	3-5	38%	4-5

Went over in Q4. Of 113 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARIZlast 9	6-3 67%	8-1 89%	0-8 0%
COLOlast 9	4-5 44%	5-3-1 63%	3-5 38%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARIZ+1.3 →+8.2▲ 6.9#26

COLO+3.1 →+0.1▼ 3.0#61

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

ARIZ

Longer bar = better

COLO

#28

Offense

◀ ARIZ better

#58

#61

Defense

◀ ARIZ better

#120

−0.4 #112

Turnovers

COLO better ▶

+1.2 #6

68 plays #58

Pace

COLO faster ▶

73 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARIZ has the ball

Advantage: ARIZ offense

	ARIZ off	COLO def	Edge
Points / game	30.8 #46	33.9 #121	ARIZ
Yards / play	6.46 #29	6.23 #121	ARIZ
PPA / play	+0.23 #30	+0.18 #112	ARIZ
Success rate	52% #5	47% #125	ARIZ

When COLO has the ball

Even matchup

	COLO off	ARIZ def	Edge
Points / game	30.7 #47	19.8 #29	Even
Yards / play	5.34 #91	5.42 #59	ARIZ
PPA / play	+0.19 #43	+0.08 #58	Even
Success rate	44% #51	44% #98	COLO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ARIZ scoring against the COLO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARIZ scored	4.1 #106	8.4 #61	12.6 #83	7.9 #31	8.9 #24	16.8 #22
COLO allowed	6.1 #90	9.7 #104	15.8 #104	8.2 #121	8.0 #95	16.2 #111

COLO scoring against the ARIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
COLO scored	5.3 #79	6.9 #90	12.2 #89	4.7 #104	11.3 #4	16.0 #30
ARIZ allowed	4.9 #52	4.9 #18	9.8 #31	3.4 #20	4.1 #14	7.6 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.