Washington State @ California: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 4:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at California · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F4 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Washington State

4-5 · Power #46

final

Final

California

3-6 · Power #57

▲ winner

Closing spread

CAL -2

✓ CAL W

Total

▲ Over · 81 pts

Model before kickoff

WSU 29–30 CAL

✓ CAL (56%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCAL -2

Total60

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCAL -2

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close60

Line context

Home favorites of 1–3 since 2023: won 50%, covered 46% (58 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCAL -2

Total60

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CAL as a 2-point home favorite against WSU, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: CAL won 42–39; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 81 points went over 60, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3.1 against an average line of 2.6; 53.3 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UVA vs GT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	17–45	L	O56
Very close	BAY vs HOU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	24–25	L	U58.5
Very close	VT vs UVA 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	33–15	W	U64
Very close	FSU vs LOU 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & spread	-1.25	23–31	L	U60.75
Very close	APP vs MRSH 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	31–9	W	U57.5
Very close	MEM vs ECU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4	29–30	L	O58.75
Very close	USF vs FAU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	14–56	L	O61
Very close	MEM vs HOU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	32–33	L	O57.5
Very close	KSU vs TCU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	31–12	W	U58.5
Very close	GT vs VT 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	17–26	L	U55.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSU LLWLL	4-5	44%	2-2	3-1
CAL LLLWL	3-6	33%	2-3	0-2

Venue/role: WSU away, as underdog; CAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSU –UOOU	5-3	63%	4-5
CAL U–OOO	4-3	57%	3-6

Went over in Q4. Of 67 earlier overs in games with totals 56–64, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSUlast 9	4-5 44%	4-5 44%	5-3 63%
CALlast 9	3-6 33%	3-6 33%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSU+5.5 →+0.9▼ 4.6#56

CAL+15.6 →+0.2▼ 15.4#59

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

WSU

Longer bar = better

CAL

#56

Offense

◀ WSU better

#74

#84

Defense

◀ WSU better

#125

−0.4 #110

Turnovers

CAL better ▶

−0.2 #88

68 plays #56

Pace

CAL faster ▶

74 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSU has the ball

Advantage: WSU offense

	WSU off	CAL def	Edge
Points / game	29.3 #57	36.8 #132	WSU
Yards / play	6.07 #49	6.19 #118	WSU
PPA / play	+0.11 #75	+0.21 #120	WSU
Success rate	45% #41	47% #129	WSU

When CAL has the ball

Even matchup

	CAL off	WSU def	Edge
Points / game	30.8 #45	28.6 #99	CAL
Yards / play	5.53 #80	5.95 #100	Even
PPA / play	+0.07 #92	+0.12 #75	Even
Success rate	41% #77	42% #62	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

WSU scoring against the CAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSU scored	7.7 #33	11.1 #19	18.8 #19	5.1 #88	5.4 #103	10.6 #104
CAL allowed	9.6 #127	10.9 #125	20.4 #133	6.2 #81	10.1 #127	16.3 #116

CAL scoring against the WSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAL scored	6.8 #48	9.2 #44	16.0 #44	8.8 #20	6.0 #89	14.8 #45
WSU allowed	3.7 #26	7.8 #84	11.4 #47	6.8 #97	10.3 #129	17.1 #126

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.