Georgia Tech @ Virginia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 2:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Virginia · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F3 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Georgia Tech

4-4 · Power #53

▲ winner

Final

Virginia

2-6 · Power #85

final

Closing spread

Pick’em

✓ GT W

Total

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

GT 30–30 UVA

✓ GT (50%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePick’em

Total56

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GT WLWLW	4-4	50%	2-1	—
UVA WWWWW	6-2	75%	3-0	—

Venue/role: GT away; UVA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GT UO–OO	5-1	83%	4-4
UVA UPUPO	4-2-2	67%	2-6

Went over in Q4. Of 101 earlier overs in games with totals 52–60, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GTlast 8	4-4 50%	4-4 50%	5-1 83%
UVAlast 8	2-6 25%	6-2 75%	4-2-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GT−2.1 →−0.5▲ 1.6#64

UVA−11.2 →−3.0▲ 8.2#81

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

Longer bar = better

UVA

#37

Offense

◀ GT better

#89

#124

Defense

UVA better ▶

#94

+0.1 #56

Turnovers

◀ GT better

−0.4 #99

68 plays #64

Pace

UVA faster ▶

71 plays #35

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GT has the ball

Advantage: GT offense

	GT off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	31.8 #43	30.9 #107	GT
Yards / play	6.79 #15	5.61 #69	GT
PPA / play	+0.20 #38	+0.16 #97	GT
Success rate	44% #50	44% #103	GT

When UVA has the ball

Advantage: UVA offense

	UVA off	GT def	Edge
Points / game	23.9 #93	31.8 #111	Even
Yards / play	5.13 #101	6.58 #130	UVA
PPA / play	+0.08 #87	+0.24 #127	UVA
Success rate	42% #74	48% #129	UVA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

GT scoring against the UVA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GT scored	5.3 #82	10.6 #26	15.9 #50	7.1 #47	8.8 #27	15.9 #34
UVA allowed	5.5 #76	7.8 #81	13.3 #76	9.1 #124	7.8 #90	16.9 #121

UVA scoring against the GT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UVA scored	6.5 #54	6.4 #101	12.9 #83	6.8 #57	3.9 #125	10.6 #100
GT allowed	6.3 #89	5.9 #32	12.1 #58	9.0 #123	10.6 #129	19.6 #132

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.