Miami @ NC State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at NC State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff51°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Miami

6-2 · Power #25

final

Final

NC State

5-3 · Power #38

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIA -6.5

✓ NCSU W

Total

▼ Under · 26 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 28–21 NCSU

✗ MIA (67%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIA -6.5

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMIA -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 57% (53 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIA -6.5

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as a 6.5-point road favorite at NCSU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: NCSU won 20–6 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 26 points stayed under 44, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.3 against an average line of 6.4; 52.1 points a game (usually 54.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ASU @ WASH 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6	35–30	L	O45.5
Very close	AUB @ SC 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7	17–21	L	U45.25
Very close	TA&M @ LSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.25	24–27	L	O46.75
Very close	FRES @ WYO 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	19–24	L	P43
Very close	PITT @ MIA 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-4.25	42–16	W	O44
Very close	PITT @ UVA 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	37–7	W	O41.5
Very close	ORE @ WASH 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	26–16	W	U48
Very close	MINN @ NU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-7.5	41–14	W	O43.5
Very close	ISU @ WVU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	31–38	L	O49
Very close	UL @ TROY 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	35–21	W	O48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA WLLWL	4-4	50%	1-1	2-3
NCSU LWWLW	3-5	38%	3-2	2-2

Venue/role: MIA away, as favorite; NCSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA O–OOO	5-1	83%	6-2
NCSU UU–UU	1-5	17%	5-3

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 55% of games with totals 40–48 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIAlast 8	6-2 75%	4-4 50%	5-1 83%
NCSUlast 8	5-3 63%	3-5 38%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA+11.1 →+8.9▼ 2.2#24

NCSU+5.0 →+1.6▼ 3.4#56

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

MIA

Longer bar = better

NCSU

#24

Offense

◀ MIA better

#104

#28

Defense

Even

#39

−0.3 #91

Turnovers

NCSU better ▶

+0.4 #39

67 plays #68

Pace

Even

67 plays #76

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Even matchup

	MIA off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	35.4 #20	22.8 #44	MIA
Yards / play	6.78 #16	5.31 #49	MIA
PPA / play	+0.22 #31	+0.01 #26	Even
Success rate	47% #28	38% #35	Even

When NCSU has the ball

Advantage: MIA defense

	NCSU off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #81	20.0 #30	MIA
Yards / play	4.95 #116	4.98 #29	MIA
PPA / play	+0.01 #115	+0.03 #33	MIA
Success rate	39% #105	36% #21	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MIA scoring against the NCSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	5.6 #78	10.0 #35	15.6 #53	7.5 #40	10.1 #12	17.6 #16
NCSU allowed	3.9 #29	6.0 #36	9.9 #29	6.8 #91	6.1 #63	12.9 #80

NCSU scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NCSU scored	5.6 #78	7.6 #74	13.3 #77	8.3 #28	3.8 #126	12.0 #84
MIA allowed	3.0 #18	4.3 #13	7.3 #8	8.0 #115	4.0 #15	12.0 #64

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.