Wake Forest @ Duke: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Thu, Nov 2, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Duke · Conference game

Weather at kickoff43°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Wake Forest

4-4 · Power #81

final

Final

Duke

5-3 · Power #37

▲ winner

Closing spread

DUKE -6.5

✓ WAKE W

Total

▲ Over · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

WAKE 19–27 DUKE

✓ DUKE (73%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDUKE -6.5

Total41

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseDUKE -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close41

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 58% (48 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDUKE -6.5

Total41

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DUKE as a 6.5-point home favorite against WAKE, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: DUKE won 24–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 45 points went over 41, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.1 against an average line of 7; 42.5 points a game (usually 54.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MRSH vs GAST 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	28–23	L	O45.5
Close	SDSU vs CSU 2020 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	29–17	W	O45.5
Close	ILL vs PUR 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & season form	-6	24–31	L	O44
Close	MINN vs MSU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	27–12	W	U41
Close	UK vs SC 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	14–24	L	U44.5
Close	TROY vs ARMY 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & spread	-8.5	10–9	L	U45.5
Close	AUB vs MSST 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	27–13	W	P40
Close	BOIS vs SDSU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-6	35–13	W	O38
Close	IOWA vs NEB 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & rest	-10.5	17–24	L	O38
Close	TA&M vs MSST 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-7	22–26	L	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WAKE LWLWL	3-5	38%	1-2	2-2
DUKE WLWLL	4-4	50%	3-2	3-1

Venue/role: WAKE away, as underdog; DUKE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WAKE U–UUO	3-4	43%	4-4
DUKE OUUOU	3-3-1	50%	5-3

Went over in Q4. Of 42 earlier overs in games with totals 37–45, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WAKElast 8	4-4 50%	3-5 38%	3-4 43%
DUKElast 8	5-3 63%	4-4 50%	3-3-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

WAKE 40–60 DUKE (2 tied) DUKE leads · 102 games since 1921 · DUKE has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WAKE+1.2 →−4.1▼ 5.3#87

DUKE+4.1 →+8.6▲ 4.5#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

WAKE

Longer bar = better

DUKE

#110

Offense

DUKE better ▶

#60

#67

Defense

DUKE better ▶

#35

−0.6 #116

Turnovers

DUKE better ▶

+0.3 #52

71 plays #35

Pace

◀ WAKE faster

58 plays #130

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WAKE has the ball

Advantage: DUKE defense

	WAKE off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	22.3 #105	15.0 #9	DUKE
Yards / play	4.87 #121	4.79 #20	DUKE
PPA / play	−0.02 #124	0.00 #28	DUKE
Success rate	40% #90	43% #82	Even

When DUKE has the ball

Even matchup

	DUKE off	WAKE def	Edge
Points / game	25.9 #80	24.5 #59	WAKE
Yards / play	6.02 #53	5.83 #90	DUKE
PPA / play	+0.15 #60	+0.10 #70	Even
Success rate	45% #47	40% #49	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

WAKE scoring against the DUKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WAKE scored	2.4 #129	7.4 #81	9.8 #115	5.0 #96	7.5 #52	12.5 #76
DUKE allowed	4.8 #55	3.8 #10	8.5 #15	1.1 #3	5.4 #46	6.5 #7

DUKE scoring against the WAKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DUKE scored	5.1 #84	8.4 #63	13.5 #76	7.9 #33	4.5 #114	12.4 #81
WAKE allowed	3.0 #22	11.5 #125	14.5 #92	3.4 #19	6.6 #75	10.0 #36

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.