Florida State @ Wake Forest: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Wake Forest · Conference game

Weather at kickoff79°F3 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Florida State

7-0 · Power #14

▲ winner

Final

Wake Forest

4-3 · Power #81

final

Closing spread

FSU -21

✓ FSU W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

FSU 37–17 WAKE

✓ FSU (93%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFSU -21

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseFSU -21

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close53.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFSU -21

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FSU as a 21-point road favorite at WAKE, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: FSU won 41–16; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 53.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 21.2 against an average line of 20.8; 53.8 points a game (usually 55.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ND @ STAN 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-20.75	45–14	W	O53
Very close	CLEM @ BC 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-21	31–3	W	U48.75
Very close	FLA @ SC 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-20.5	17–40	L	O52
Close	UTAH @ ARIZ 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar total & rest	-24	38–29	L	O54.5
Close	OSU @ PUR 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar total & rest	-17.5	41–7	W	U53
Close	ND @ GT 2020 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-20.5	31–13	L	U58.5
Close	MICH @ IU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-23.5	31–10	L	U57.5
Close	UGA @ SC 2020 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-22	45–16	W	O50
Close	OSU @ IU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-21	54–7	W	O59
Close	ORE @ CAL 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-16.75	42–24	W	O56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FSU LWLWW	5-2	71%	1-1	4-2
WAKE LLWLW	3-4	43%	2-2	2-1

Venue/role: FSU away, as favorite; WAKE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FSU OU–UO	3-2	60%	7-0
WAKE UU–UU	2-4	33%	4-3

Went over in Q4. Of 102 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FSUlast 7	7-0 100%	5-2 71%	3-2 60%
WAKElast 7	4-3 57%	3-4 43%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FSU+6.4 →+17.9▲ 11.5#7

WAKE+1.2 →−3.6▼ 4.8#87

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

FSU

Longer bar = better

WAKE

#22

Offense

◀ FSU better

#105

#39

Defense

◀ FSU better

#53

+0.7 #27

Turnovers

◀ FSU better

−0.7 #121

65 plays #95

Pace

WAKE faster ▶

72 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FSU has the ball

Advantage: FSU offense

	FSU off	WAKE def	Edge
Points / game	41.6 #5	22.1 #46	FSU
Yards / play	6.90 #12	5.56 #73	FSU
PPA / play	+0.25 #22	+0.06 #54	FSU
Success rate	44% #48	38% #38	Even

When WAKE has the ball

Advantage: FSU defense

	WAKE off	FSU def	Edge
Points / game	23.1 #100	18.6 #22	FSU
Yards / play	5.08 #110	5.26 #49	FSU
PPA / play	−0.03 #128	+0.05 #46	FSU
Success rate	41% #80	39% #39	FSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

FSU scoring against the WAKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FSU scored	8.6 #22	10.3 #35	18.9 #18	10.3 #8	11.4 #7	21.7 #3
WAKE allowed	2.0 #7	9.7 #106	11.7 #58	3.9 #31	6.6 #75	10.4 #47

WAKE scoring against the FSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WAKE scored	2.7 #124	7.4 #83	10.1 #115	4.4 #104	8.6 #30	13.0 #70
FSU allowed	3.9 #39	7.6 #77	11.4 #53	3.9 #31	3.3 #6	7.1 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.