Virginia @ Miami: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Miami · Conference game

Weather at kickoff82°F17 mphgusts 32DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Virginia

2-5 · Power #85

final

Final

Miami

5-2 · Power #25

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIA -18.5

✓ UVA W

Total

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

UVA 14–33 MIA

✓ MIA (91%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIA -18.5

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMIA -18.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48

Line context

Home favorites of 16.5–20.5 since 2023: won 93%, covered 50% (46 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIA -18.5

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as an 18.5-point home favorite against UVA, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 29–26; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 48, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 22.5 against an average line of 18.3; 48.9 points a game (usually 55.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN vs NAVY 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-18.5	20–10	L	U43.5
Very close	TA&M vs SC 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-19.5	44–14	W	O46
Very close	FLA vs VAN 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-18.5	38–14	W	O51
Very close	UK vs VAN 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-17	21–24	L	U45.5
Very close	USA vs ODU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-16.5	27–20	L	P47
Very close	ISU vs OHIO 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & rest	-20	43–10	W	O48
Very close	FSU vs BC 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total	-18.5	44–14	W	O48.5
Very close	AFA vs UNLV 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-18.5	48–14	W	O49.5
Very close	PUR vs NU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-17.5	17–9	L	U44.5
Very close	USA vs USM 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-18.5	55–3	W	O51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UVA LWWWW	5-2	71%	2-1	4-2
MIA LWLLW	4-3	57%	3-2	2-2

Venue/role: UVA away, as underdog; MIA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UVA OUPUP	3-2-2	60%	2-5
MIA UO–OO	4-1	80%	5-2

Went over in OT. Of 100 earlier overs in games with totals 44–52, 30% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UVAlast 7	2-5 29%	5-2 71%	3-2-2 60%
MIAlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-1 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UVA−11.2 →−4.7▲ 6.5#92

MIA+11.1 →+10.8▼ 0.3#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

UVA

Longer bar = better

MIA

#91

Offense

MIA better ▶

#18

#101

Defense

MIA better ▶

#26

−0.6 #111

Turnovers

MIA better ▶

−0.1 #78

69 plays #53

Pace

Even

69 plays #56

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UVA has the ball

Advantage: MIA defense

	UVA off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	23.6 #97	19.1 #25	MIA
Yards / play	5.24 #97	5.07 #31	MIA
PPA / play	+0.09 #85	+0.03 #36	MIA
Success rate	41% #84	34% #10	MIA

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: MIA offense

	MIA off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	36.3 #16	31.1 #112	MIA
Yards / play	7.00 #9	5.69 #82	MIA
PPA / play	+0.25 #21	+0.18 #103	MIA
Success rate	47% #25	44% #106	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UVA scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UVA scored	6.4 #56	6.9 #94	13.3 #79	6.3 #68	4.0 #121	10.3 #107
MIA allowed	2.4 #12	4.4 #17	6.9 #7	7.7 #112	4.1 #20	11.9 #63

MIA scoring against the UVA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	6.4 #56	11.0 #30	17.4 #40	6.6 #60	10.7 #11	17.3 #18
UVA allowed	6.3 #92	8.4 #92	14.7 #96	8.4 #119	8.0 #97	16.4 #117

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.