TCU @ Texas Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Thu, Nov 2, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Texas Tech · Conference game

Weather at kickoff63°F10 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

TCU

4-4 · Power #30

final

Final

Texas Tech

3-5 · Power #45

▲ winner

Closing spread

TTU -2.5

✓ TTU W

Total

58.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

TCU 28–30 TTU

✓ TTU (56%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTTU -2.5

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTTU -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close58.5

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 54%, covered 46% (56 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTTU -2.5

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TTU as a 2.5-point home favorite against TCU, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: TTU won 35–28; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 58.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.9 against an average line of 2.3; 52.9 points a game (usually 54). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LOU vs PITT 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & spread	-1.5	24–10	W	U55
Very close	BC vs LOU 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-1	34–27	W	O56.5
Very close	KSU vs TCU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	31–12	W	U58.5
Very close	LOU vs UK 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	21–52	L	O57.75
Very close	KU vs OKST 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	37–16	W	U60
Very close	LOU vs BC 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & season form	-4	28–14	W	U57.5
Very close	WVU vs TEX 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.25	31–23	W	U56.5
Very close	WASH vs UCLA 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	17–24	L	U55.5
Very close	UCLA vs ORE 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-1	31–34	L	O61.5
Very close	WAKE vs UVA 2020 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	40–23	W	O57

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TCU WLLWL	3-5	38%	1-2	0-1
TTU LWWLL	3-5	38%	2-2	2-4

Venue/role: TCU away, as underdog; TTU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TCU UU–OU	1-5	17%	4-4
TTU UO–OU	2-4	33%	3-5

Went over in Q4. Of 79 earlier overs in games with totals 54.5–62.5, 27% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TCUlast 8	4-4 50%	3-5 38%	1-5 17%
TTUlast 8	3-5 38%	3-5 38%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TCU−3.1 →+6.7▲ 9.8#30

TTU+2.7 →+4.0▲ 1.3#42

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

TCU

Longer bar = better

TTU

#43

Offense

◀ TCU better

#70

#66

Defense

Even

#53

−0.5 #107

Turnovers

◀ TCU better

−1.0 #130

77 plays #3

Pace

Even

74 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TCU has the ball

Even matchup

	TCU off	TTU def	Edge
Points / game	29.4 #62	25.4 #67	Even
Yards / play	6.03 #52	5.21 #41	Even
PPA / play	+0.20 #40	+0.06 #51	Even
Success rate	48% #18	40% #51	TCU

When TTU has the ball

Even matchup

	TTU off	TCU def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #57	23.0 #52	Even
Yards / play	5.53 #80	5.37 #55	TCU
PPA / play	+0.10 #82	+0.11 #78	Even
Success rate	43% #60	43% #77	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TCU scoring against the TTU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TCU scored	6.5 #54	10.3 #33	16.8 #41	5.8 #80	6.9 #64	12.6 #74
TTU allowed	7.5 #116	6.6 #55	14.1 #87	3.0 #11	6.4 #68	9.4 #28

TTU scoring against the TCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TTU scored	8.6 #19	7.6 #76	16.3 #46	5.6 #84	6.5 #72	12.1 #85
TCU allowed	6.0 #83	6.8 #57	12.8 #65	6.0 #74	4.3 #21	10.3 #42

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.