Kansas State @ Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Texas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F7 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Kansas State

6-2 · Power #11

final

Final

Texas

7-1 · Power #8

▲ winner

Closing spread

TEX -3

Push

Total

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

KSU 25–28 TEX

✓ TEX (59%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTEX -3

Total50

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTEX -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close50

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 55%, covered 45% (60 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTEX -3

Total50

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEX as a 3-point home favorite against KSU, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TEX won 33–30; the favorite pushed, as in 1 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 50, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 0.4 against an average line of 3.1; 47.4 points a game (usually 54). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ORST vs UCLA 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	36–24	W	O53.5
Very close	NCST vs FSU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	19–17	L	U50.5
Very close	BAY vs KSU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	3–31	L	U52.25
Very close	OKST vs OU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-4	37–33	P	O49.75
Very close	TA&M vs AUB 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-4.5	20–3	W	U49.5
Very close	ARK vs AUB 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	23–38	L	O54.5
Very close	UTAH vs ASU 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & rest	-1.5	35–21	W	O51.25
Very close	WISC vs PUR 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-1.5	35–24	W	O51.5
Very close	KSU vs BAY 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & situation	-2.5	10–20	L	U50
Very close	APP vs UL 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	21–24	L	U51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KSU WLWWW	6-2	75%	1-2	1-0
TEX WWLLW	4-4	50%	2-2	3-4

Venue/role: KSU away, as underdog; TEX home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KSU O–OUU	4-3	57%	6-2
TEX UU–UU	1-6	14%	7-1

Went over in Q4. Of 118 earlier overs in games with totals 46–54, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KSUlast 8	6-2 75%	6-2 75%	4-3 57%
TEXlast 8	7-1 88%	4-4 50%	1-6 14%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

KSU 10–14 TEX TEX leads · 24 games since 1913 · TEX has won the last 7 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KSU+2.0 →+15.0▲ 13.0#12

TEX+8.6 →+16.9▲ 8.3#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

KSU

Longer bar = better

TEX

#22

Offense

Even

#30

#23

Defense

Even

#19

+0.3 #48

Turnovers

TEX better ▶

+0.5 #32

73 plays #19

Pace

◀ KSU faster

69 plays #49

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KSU has the ball

Even matchup

	KSU off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	37.4 #13	16.0 #15	Even
Yards / play	6.39 #34	5.04 #30	Even
PPA / play	+0.23 #26	−0.02 #17	Even
Success rate	49% #15	35% #12	Even

When TEX has the ball

Even matchup

	TEX off	KSU def	Edge
Points / game	34.5 #23	15.9 #14	Even
Yards / play	6.56 #21	5.18 #40	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #28	−0.03 #15	Even
Success rate	45% #48	37% #23	KSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

KSU scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KSU scored	8.3 #23	13.0 #9	21.3 #10	8.3 #27	7.9 #44	16.1 #30
TEX allowed	2.5 #12	5.8 #32	8.3 #13	4.6 #46	3.1 #5	7.8 #15

TEX scoring against the KSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	8.1 #27	9.3 #45	17.4 #35	6.3 #62	10.9 #8	17.1 #19
KSU allowed	4.1 #40	6.0 #38	10.1 #36	2.5 #8	3.3 #7	5.8 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.