Ohio State @ Rutgers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Rutgers · Conference game

Weather at kickoff55°F4 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Ohio State

8-0 · Power #4

▲ winner

Final

Rutgers

6-2 · Power #51

final

Closing spread

OSU -19

Push

Total

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

OSU 31–13 RUTG

✓ OSU (91%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOSU -19

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseOSU -19

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOSU -19

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OSU as a 19-point road favorite at RUTG, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: OSU won 35–16; the favorite pushed, as in 0 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 44, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 21.5 against an average line of 17.6; 46.9 points a game (usually 55.6). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MICH @ MINN 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-18.5	52–10	W	O46
Close	PSU @ RUTG 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-18.5	55–10	W	O45
Close	ALA @ TA&M 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-18.5	38–41	L	O50.75
Close	CLEM @ BC 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-21	31–3	W	U48.75
Loose	MICH @ NEB 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread	-17	45–7	W	O39.5
Loose	UGA @ UK 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation	-22.5	16–6	L	U47.5
Loose	UGA @ UK 2020 · Week 9 · loose · similar total & situation	-17	14–3	L	U42
Loose	OSU @ WIS 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & season form	-14.5	24–10	L	U48
Loose	ALA @ MSST 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar total & situation	-14.5	40–17	W	O46.5
Loose	UGA @ AUB 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar total & situation	-14	27–20	L	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OSU PWWWL	4-3-1	57%	1-2-1	4-3-1
RUTG PWWLW	6-1-1	86%	4-1	1-0-1

Venue/role: OSU away, as favorite; RUTG home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OSU U–UUU	1-6	14%	8-0
RUTG UO–OO	4-3	57%	6-2

Went over in Q4. Of 72 earlier overs in games with totals 40–48, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OSUlast 8	8-0 100%	4-3-1 57%	1-6 14%
RUTGlast 8	6-2 75%	6-1-1 86%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OSU+8.6 →+21.0▲ 12.4#2

RUTG+1.6 →+3.5▲ 1.9#44

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

OSU

Longer bar = better

RUTG

#25

Offense

◀ OSU better

#73

Defense

◀ OSU better

#27

−0.1 #78

Turnovers

RUTG better ▶

+0.6 #26

66 plays #79

Pace

◀ OSU faster

63 plays #104

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OSU has the ball

Even matchup

	OSU off	RUTG def	Edge
Points / game	32.5 #37	15.8 #13	RUTG
Yards / play	6.50 #24	4.34 #9	Even
PPA / play	+0.29 #14	−0.04 #12	Even
Success rate	47% #25	42% #75	OSU

When RUTG has the ball

Advantage: OSU defense

	RUTG off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	28.1 #67	10.0 #2	OSU
Yards / play	5.18 #99	3.95 #1	OSU
PPA / play	+0.16 #58	−0.08 #7	OSU
Success rate	42% #68	35% #15	OSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

OSU scoring against the RUTG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	5.9 #70	10.8 #26	16.6 #44	7.8 #34	8.1 #34	15.9 #32
RUTG allowed	3.0 #24	5.5 #24	8.5 #15	3.0 #11	4.3 #21	7.3 #11

RUTG scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RUTG scored	6.0 #66	7.1 #87	13.1 #82	4.3 #107	10.8 #11	15.0 #41
OSU allowed	2.5 #12	2.4 #3	4.9 #3	2.6 #9	2.5 #3	5.1 #4

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.