Nebraska @ Michigan State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Michigan State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff52°F1 mphgusts 6DryWeather watch ›

Nebraska

5-3 · Power #62

final

Final

Michigan State

2-6 · Power #98

▲ winner

Closing spread

NEB -3

✓ MSU W

Total

35.5

▲ Over · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

NEB 21–18 MSU

✗ NEB (59%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNEB -3

Total35.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseNEB -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close35.5

Line context

Road favorites of 1–5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 45% (58 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNEB -3

Total35.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NEB as a 3-point road favorite at MSU, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: MSU won 20–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 37 points went over 35.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2.5 against an average line of 3.5; 46.9 points a game (usually 54). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PITT @ VT 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	21–38	L	O40
Close	SJSU @ SDSU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.25	27–43	L	O41
Close	CSU @ WYO 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest	-3	17–31	L	O41.5
Close	RUTG @ IU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest	-6	31–14	W	O39.5
Close	FAU @ GASO 2020 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	3–20	L	U40.5
Close	RUTG @ ILL 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-1.5	20–14	W	U41.5
Close	PITT @ UVA 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	37–7	W	O41.5
Close	WIS @ ILL 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-3	25–21	W	O41
Close	UL @ USM 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	24–39	L	O42.75
Close	WASH @ COLO 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	17–20	L	U43

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NEB LLWLW	4-4	50%	2-1	1-2
MSU LPWLL	3-4-1	43%	2-3	1-4-1

Venue/role: NEB away, as favorite; MSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NEB UO–UO	3-3	50%	5-3
MSU UOOOU	4-3	57%	2-6

Went over in Q4. Of 14 earlier overs in games with totals 31.5–39.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NEBlast 8	5-3 63%	4-4 50%	3-3 50%
MSUlast 8	2-6 25%	3-4-1 43%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NEB+0.1 →+0.8▲ 0.7#59

MSU+7.2 →−5.5▼ 12.7#95

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

NEB

Longer bar = better

MSU

#107

Offense

◀ NEB better

#121

#24

Defense

◀ NEB better

#72

−1.1 #131

Turnovers

Even

−0.9 #126

61 plays #124

Pace

MSU faster ▶

65 plays #86

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NEB has the ball

Advantage: MSU defense

	NEB off	MSU def	Edge
Points / game	20.3 #116	27.8 #86	MSU
Yards / play	5.30 #91	5.50 #65	MSU
PPA / play	0.00 #119	+0.10 #69	MSU
Success rate	39% #101	42% #68	MSU

When MSU has the ball

Advantage: NEB defense

	MSU off	NEB def	Edge
Points / game	18.0 #128	18.6 #21	NEB
Yards / play	4.95 #116	4.50 #11	NEB
PPA / play	−0.10 #134	+0.01 #29	NEB
Success rate	39% #104	38% #33	NEB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

NEB scoring against the MSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEB scored	1.6 #133	6.1 #103	7.8 #130	4.8 #102	7.8 #45	12.5 #76
MSU allowed	5.1 #65	9.5 #104	14.6 #96	2.9 #10	10.3 #126	13.1 #80

MSU scoring against the NEB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSU scored	2.9 #123	4.9 #126	7.8 #130	6.0 #70	4.3 #119	10.3 #107
NEB allowed	2.5 #12	5.9 #33	8.4 #14	2.1 #6	8.1 #94	10.3 #41

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.