Michigan State @ Ohio State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Ohio State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff40°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Michigan State

3-6 · Power #98

final

Final

Ohio State

9-0 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

OSU -32.5

✓ OSU W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

MSU 7–39 OSU

✓ OSU (99%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOSU -32.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseOSU -32.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOSU -32.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OSU as a 32.5-point home favorite against MSU, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: OSU won 38–3; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 48.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 96%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 54%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 29.2 against an average line of 32.1; 53 points a game (usually 56.7). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PSU vs IU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-31	33–24	L	O45
Very close	MICH vs NEB 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-30.5	34–3	W	U49.5
Very close	ND vs SYR 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & rest	-34	45–21	L	O51
Close	CIN vs TEM 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-30	52–3	W	O52.5
Close	BYU vs WKU 2020 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-30.5	41–10	W	U52.5
Close	TEX vs WYO 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar total & rest	-31	31–10	L	U48.5
Close	MICH vs IU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & season form	-33.5	52–7	W	O45.5
Close	UGA vs GT 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & rest	-36.5	37–14	L	O49
Close	MICH vs PUR 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-32.5	41–13	L	P54
Close	MSST vs BGSU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-31	45–14	P	O53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSU PWLLW	4-4-1	50%	1-1-1	2-4-1
OSU WWWLP	4-3-2	57%	3-1	4-3-2

Venue/role: MSU away, as underdog; OSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSU OOOUO	5-3	63%	3-6
OSU –UUUO	2-6	25%	9-0

Stayed under: it needed 8 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 55% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSUlast 9	3-6 33%	4-4-1 50%	5-3 63%
OSUlast 9	9-0 100%	4-3-2 57%	2-6 25%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MSU+7.2 →−5.1▼ 12.3#94

OSU+8.6 →+20.7▲ 12.1#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

MSU

Longer bar = better

OSU

#124

Offense

OSU better ▶

#23

#59

Defense

OSU better ▶

−0.4 #105

Turnovers

OSU better ▶

−0.1 #83

64 plays #101

Pace

Even

65 plays #96

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MSU has the ball

Advantage: OSU defense

	MSU off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	18.2 #127	10.7 #2	OSU
Yards / play	4.99 #117	4.11 #2	OSU
PPA / play	−0.08 #134	−0.09 #4	OSU
Success rate	38% #116	35% #10	OSU

When OSU has the ball

Advantage: OSU offense

	OSU off	MSU def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #32	26.6 #73	OSU
Yards / play	6.45 #25	5.33 #52	OSU
PPA / play	+0.27 #12	+0.08 #59	OSU
Success rate	47% #24	41% #51	OSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MSU scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSU scored	2.9 #124	5.1 #122	8.0 #127	5.7 #79	4.6 #118	10.2 #107
OSU allowed	2.2 #7	3.1 #5	5.3 #4	2.3 #7	3.0 #3	5.3 #3

OSU scoring against the MSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	6.0 #67	9.6 #42	15.6 #56	8.4 #24	8.8 #26	17.2 #16
MSU allowed	4.6 #45	9.6 #102	14.1 #88	2.6 #8	9.9 #123	12.4 #73

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.