Michigan State @ Indiana: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Indiana · Conference game

Weather at kickoff48°F2 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Michigan State

3-7 · Power #98

▲ winner

Final

Indiana

3-7 · Power #89

final

Closing spread

IU -3.5

✓ MSU W

Total

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

MSU 22–26 IU

✗ IU (60%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseIU -3.5

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseIU -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 47% (91 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseIU -3.5

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IU as a 3.5-point home favorite against MSU, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MSU won 24–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 47, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.7 against an average line of 3.6; 53.1 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CSU vs SDSU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	22–19	L	U46.5
Very close	CAL vs STAN 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-5	27–20	W	O46
Very close	TLSA vs CLT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-4.5	26–33	L	O47.5
Very close	CLT vs WKU 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & situation	-2.5	19–37	L	O46.5
Very close	ILL vs IU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	48–45	L	O43.5
Very close	BUFF vs M-OH 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	24–20	W	U50.25
Very close	RICE vs UTEP 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	37–30	W	O47
Very close	BUFF vs BGSU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	14–24	L	U44.5
Very close	BC vs UVA 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	27–24	L	U52.5
Very close	M-OH vs BALL 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	18–17	L	U45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSU WLLWL	4-5-1	44%	1-2-1	2-5-1
IU LLWWW	6-4	60%	3-2	1-1

Venue/role: MSU away, as underdog; IU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSU OOUOU	5-4	56%	3-7
IU OOOUO	7-3	70%	3-7

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 54% of games with totals 43–51 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSU	3-7 30%	4-5-1 44%	5-4 56%
IU	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MSU+7.2 →−5.6▼ 12.8#94

IU−10.1 →−5.0▲ 5.1#89

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

MSU

Longer bar = better

#128

Offense

IU better ▶

#111

#77

Defense

◀ MSU better

#114

−0.4 #100

Turnovers

Even

−0.3 #97

63 plays #109

Pace

IU faster ▶

65 plays #83

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MSU has the ball

Even matchup

	MSU off	IU def	Edge
Points / game	16.7 #134	30.0 #106	IU
Yards / play	4.85 #123	5.93 #98	IU
PPA / play	−0.07 #135	+0.22 #124	Even
Success rate	38% #120	47% #126	Even

When IU has the ball

Advantage: MSU defense

	IU off	MSU def	Edge
Points / game	21.4 #109	27.7 #84	MSU
Yards / play	4.96 #117	5.60 #69	MSU
PPA / play	+0.02 #116	+0.13 #83	MSU
Success rate	39% #102	42% #72	MSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MSU scoring against the IU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSU scored	2.6 #128	4.9 #123	7.5 #130	5.1 #87	4.1 #127	9.2 #120
IU allowed	5.8 #78	9.8 #107	15.6 #102	7.2 #104	5.6 #49	12.8 #77

IU scoring against the MSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IU scored	5.9 #71	5.7 #113	11.6 #94	2.8 #127	5.5 #101	8.3 #124
MSU allowed	5.5 #73	10.7 #120	16.2 #105	2.6 #8	8.9 #106	11.5 #56

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.