Purdue @ Northwestern: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Northwestern · Conference game

Weather at kickoff46°F11 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Purdue

3-7 · Power #66

final

Final

Northwestern

5-5 · Power #65

▲ winner

Closing spread

NU -2.5

✓ NU W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

PUR 24–26 NU

✓ NU (56%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNU -2.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseNU -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47.5

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 50% (81 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNU -2.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NU as a 2.5-point home favorite against PUR, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: NU won 23–15; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 9 against an average line of 2.2; 47.4 points a game (usually 54). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	VT vs WAKE 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-1.5	30–13	W	U48.5
Very close	USM vs GAST 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-2	14–42	L	O48
Very close	BUFF vs M-OH 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	24–20	W	U50.25
Very close	RUTG vs IU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	24–17	W	U48
Very close	RUTG vs MD 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	16–40	L	O53
Very close	GT vs MIA 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	14–35	L	O43.5
Very close	GT vs UVA 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	9–16	L	U48
Very close	WVU vs OKST 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	34–48	L	O48.5
Very close	SYR vs BC 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-0.5	10–17	L	U47.5
Very close	UVA vs LOU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-1.5	17–34	L	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PUR LLLWW	4-6	40%	2-2	2-4
NU LWWWW	6-4	60%	3-2	1-1

Venue/role: PUR away, as underdog; NU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PUR –UOOO	5-3	63%	3-7
NU UUOUU	5-5	50%	5-5

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 15. 54% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PUR	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-3 63%
NU	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PUR−4.2 →−0.3▲ 3.9#65

NU−3.1 →−2.5▲ 0.6#78

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

PUR

Longer bar = better

#87

Offense

◀ PUR better

#113

#84

Defense

NU better ▶

#61

0.0 #70

Turnovers

NU better ▶

+0.5 #31

70 plays #41

Pace

◀ PUR faster

65 plays #94

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PUR has the ball

Advantage: NU defense

	PUR off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #93	22.8 #48	NU
Yards / play	5.26 #95	5.09 #34	NU
PPA / play	+0.06 #96	+0.11 #72	NU
Success rate	43% #65	44% #91	PUR

When NU has the ball

Advantage: PUR defense

	NU off	PUR def	Edge
Points / game	20.5 #115	31.1 #111	Even
Yards / play	4.55 #129	5.76 #82	PUR
PPA / play	+0.07 #94	+0.13 #86	Even
Success rate	39% #112	41% #57	PUR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

PUR scoring against the NU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PUR scored	3.7 #114	6.8 #88	10.5 #109	5.6 #79	7.6 #48	13.2 #63
NU allowed	5.1 #56	5.4 #25	10.5 #35	6.2 #79	5.8 #51	12.0 #65

NU scoring against the PUR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NU scored	4.3 #101	5.8 #109	10.1 #110	3.4 #119	6.4 #82	9.8 #112
PUR allowed	7.8 #113	9.5 #101	17.3 #112	4.5 #42	9.3 #115	13.8 #88

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.