Northwestern @ Illinois: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Illinois · Conference game

Weather at kickoff40°F3 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Northwestern

6-5 · Power #65

▲ winner

Final

Illinois

5-6 · Power #67

final

Closing spread

ILL -6

✓ NU W

Total

▲ Over · 88 pts

Model before kickoff

NU 21–27 ILL

✗ ILL (66%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseILL -6

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseILL -6

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47

Line context

Home favorites of 5–7 since 2023: won 69%, covered 52% (55 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseILL -6

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ILL as a 6-point home favorite against NU, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: NU won 45–43 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 88 points went over 47, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.8 against an average line of 5.3; 56 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GAST vs TROY 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	37–10	W	U49.5
Very close	ILL vs IU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	48–45	L	O43.5
Very close	IOWA vs MSU 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	49–7	W	O46
Very close	IU vs RUTG 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	3–38	L	U42.5
Very close	GT vs SYR 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6	31–22	W	O51.5
Very close	BAY vs KSU 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-5.5	32–31	L	O44.5
Very close	WYO vs CSU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6	24–15	W	U43.5
Very close	FAU vs MTSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	17–27	L	U49.5
Very close	CAL vs STAN 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-5	27–20	W	O46
Very close	VT vs SYR 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	36–41	L	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NU WWWWW	7-4	64%	2-2	5-3
ILL WLWLW	3-8	27%	0-6	0-4

Venue/role: NU away, as underdog; ILL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NU UOUUU	5-6	45%	6-5
ILL OOOOU	5-4	56%	5-6

Went over in Q3. Of 145 earlier overs in games with totals 43–51, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NU	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
ILL	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NU−3.1 →−2.3▲ 0.8#76

ILL−0.7 →−0.8▼ 0.1#65

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

Longer bar = better

ILL

#114

Offense

ILL better ▶

#70

#56

Defense

◀ NU better

#82

+0.7 #20

Turnovers

◀ NU better

−0.5 #120

64 plays #94

Pace

ILL faster ▶

68 plays #58

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NU has the ball

Advantage: ILL defense

	NU off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	20.7 #114	28.0 #92	ILL
Yards / play	4.64 #129	5.27 #44	ILL
PPA / play	+0.07 #93	+0.16 #96	Even
Success rate	38% #118	44% #96	ILL

When ILL has the ball

Even matchup

	ILL off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	22.8 #98	22.1 #45	NU
Yards / play	5.69 #71	5.16 #33	NU
PPA / play	+0.11 #78	+0.09 #59	Even
Success rate	46% #31	43% #88	ILL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

NU scoring against the ILL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NU scored	4.5 #99	5.3 #122	9.7 #112	4.0 #113	6.5 #76	10.5 #104
ILL allowed	5.9 #80	9.8 #111	15.7 #103	4.9 #46	7.1 #87	12.0 #63

ILL scoring against the NU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ILL scored	4.5 #96	7.5 #73	12.1 #89	5.5 #82	4.6 #116	10.2 #107
NU allowed	4.6 #46	4.9 #18	9.5 #24	6.3 #84	6.0 #58	12.3 #68

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.