Indiana @ Illinois: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Illinois · Conference game

Weather at kickoff46°F6 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Indiana

3-6 · Power #89

final

Final

Illinois

4-5 · Power #67

▲ winner

Closing spread

ILL -4.5

✓ IU W

Total

▲ Over · 93 pts

Model before kickoff

IU 21–26 ILL

✓ ILL (64%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseILL -4.5

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseILL -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 48% (48 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseILL -4.5

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ILL as a 4.5-point home favorite against IU, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: ILL won 48–45; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 93 points went over 44, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.1 against an average line of 5.3; 50.1 points a game (usually 53.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CAL vs STAN 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5	27–20	W	O46
Very close	ILL vs NEB 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	7–20	L	U42
Very close	MINN vs MSU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-6.5	27–12	W	U41
Very close	IU vs RUTG 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	3–38	L	U42.5
Very close	VT vs GT 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-4	27–28	L	O40.5
Very close	ILL vs NU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-7	47–14	W	O44.5
Very close	WYO vs CSU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-6	24–15	W	U43.5
Very close	IOWA vs MSU 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	49–7	W	O46
Very close	BAY vs KSU 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-5.5	32–31	L	O44.5
Very close	MD vs IU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	38–35	L	O48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IU LLLWW	5-4	56%	1-2	4-3
ILL LLWLW	2-7	22%	0-5	0-3

Venue/role: IU away, as underdog; ILL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IU OOOOU	6-3	67%	3-6
ILL O–OOO	4-3	57%	4-5

Went over in Q2. Of 80 earlier overs in games with totals 40–48, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IUlast 9	3-6 33%	5-4 56%	6-3 67%
ILLlast 9	4-5 44%	2-7 22%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IU−10.1 →−4.6▲ 5.5#91

ILL−0.7 →−1.0▼ 0.3#69

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

Longer bar = better

ILL

#123

Offense

ILL better ▶

#79

#93

Defense

Even

#85

−0.3 #95

Turnovers

◀ IU better

−0.7 #126

64 plays #96

Pace

ILL faster ▶

67 plays #70

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IU has the ball

Advantage: ILL defense

	IU off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	18.8 #122	27.6 #85	ILL
Yards / play	4.83 #122	5.29 #49	ILL
PPA / play	−0.01 #123	+0.16 #101	ILL
Success rate	37% #123	44% #103	Even

When ILL has the ball

Even matchup

	ILL off	IU def	Edge
Points / game	21.1 #110	28.0 #88	IU
Yards / play	5.46 #83	5.52 #66	Even
PPA / play	+0.08 #84	+0.18 #108	ILL
Success rate	45% #40	45% #111	ILL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

IU scoring against the ILL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IU scored	5.8 #69	4.1 #128	9.9 #115	3.1 #124	4.4 #117	7.6 #128
ILL allowed	6.2 #92	9.0 #93	15.2 #102	6.0 #71	6.3 #66	12.3 #72

ILL scoring against the IU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ILL scored	4.2 #101	6.6 #94	10.8 #104	6.0 #74	4.3 #121	10.3 #105
IU allowed	5.4 #77	9.0 #93	14.4 #95	7.2 #103	5.2 #42	12.4 #74

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.