Minnesota @ Purdue: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Purdue · Conference game

Weather at kickoff49°F5 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Minnesota

5-4 · Power #79

final

Final

Purdue

2-7 · Power #66

▲ winner

Closing spread

MINN -2

✓ PUR W

Total

▲ Over · 79 pts

Model before kickoff

MINN 26–25 PUR

✗ MINN (53%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMINN -2

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMINN -2

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48

Line context

Road favorites of 1–3 since 2023: won 53%, covered 49% (43 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMINN -2

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MINN as a 2-point road favorite at PUR, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: PUR won 49–30 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 79 points went over 48, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.6 against an average line of 2.4; 46.8 points a game (usually 54.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CAL @ STAN 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	41–11	W	O46
Very close	WSU @ STAN 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-3	52–14	W	O48.5
Very close	PITT @ WAKE 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	17–21	L	U45
Very close	MIZ @ MSST 2020 · Week 16 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	32–51	L	O49
Very close	MIA @ UVA 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	14–12	L	U48.5
Very close	VT @ BC 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-1	3–17	L	U51
Very close	WSU @ WASH 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1	40–13	W	O45
Very close	TCU @ BAY 2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	33–23	W	O47.5
Very close	MRSH @ CCU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	6–34	L	U47
Very close	ISU @ OKST 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.75	14–20	L	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MINN WLWWL	3-6	33%	1-2	2-4
PUR WLLLW	3-6	33%	1-4	1-4

Venue/role: MINN away, as favorite; PUR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MINN O–UUO	3-4	43%	5-4
PUR O–UOO	4-3	57%	2-7

Went over in Q3. Of 129 earlier overs in games with totals 44–52, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINNlast 9	5-4 56%	3-6 33%	3-4 43%
PURlast 9	2-7 22%	3-6 33%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MINN 42–36 PUR (3 tied) MINN leads · 81 games since 1894 · PUR has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MINN−0.1 →−0.9▼ 0.8#68

PUR−4.2 →−1.8▲ 2.4#73

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

MINN

Longer bar = better

PUR

#109

Offense

Even

#108

#60

Defense

◀ MINN better

#82

+0.7 #21

Turnovers

◀ MINN better

0.0 #68

65 plays #92

Pace

PUR faster ▶

70 plays #41

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MINN has the ball

Advantage: PUR defense

	MINN off	PUR def	Edge
Points / game	21.7 #106	31.2 #111	Even
Yards / play	4.78 #125	5.74 #81	PUR
PPA / play	+0.04 #107	+0.12 #78	PUR
Success rate	40% #99	41% #56	PUR

When PUR has the ball

Advantage: MINN defense

	PUR off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	20.9 #112	23.2 #49	MINN
Yards / play	4.88 #119	5.58 #72	MINN
PPA / play	−0.01 #120	+0.08 #60	MINN
Success rate	41% #80	41% #59	MINN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MINN scoring against the PUR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MINN scored	3.0 #120	8.2 #65	11.2 #101	4.0 #113	6.1 #89	10.1 #112
PUR allowed	7.6 #111	9.4 #98	17.0 #114	5.0 #55	9.2 #110	14.2 #93

PUR scoring against the MINN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PUR scored	2.6 #127	6.0 #108	8.6 #124	5.4 #85	6.9 #67	12.3 #80
MINN allowed	5.2 #63	6.4 #47	11.7 #52	4.6 #45	6.3 #65	10.9 #47

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.