Marshall @ Coastal Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 6:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Coastal Carolina · Conference game

Weather at kickoff75°F3 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Marshall

4-3 · Power #96

final

Final

Coastal Carolina

4-3 · Power #70

▲ winner

Closing spread

MRSH -3.5

✓ CCU W

Total

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

MRSH 28–26 CCU

✗ MRSH (55%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMRSH -3.5

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMRSH -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–5.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 47% (57 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMRSH -3.5

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MRSH as a 3.5-point road favorite at CCU, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CCU won 34–6 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 47, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.3 against an average line of 2.5; 45.5 points a game (usually 54.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PITT @ WAKE 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	17–21	L	U45
Very close	UL @ UAB 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	24–20	W	U50.5
Very close	APP @ MRSH 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-2	21–28	L	O47.5
Very close	AFA @ CSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	35–21	W	O45
Very close	UTAH @ COLO 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	38–21	W	O49
Very close	NEB @ RUTG 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	14–13	L	U50.5
Close	TCU @ BAY 2020 · Week 9 · close · similar total & spread	-2.5	33–23	W	O47.5
Close	MIA @ UVA 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	14–12	L	U48.5
Close	WSU @ WASH 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar total & situation	-1	40–13	W	O45
Close	BSU @ CSU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-2	28–19	W	U51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MRSH WLLLL	2-5	29%	1-2	2-2
CCU WLLWW	5-2	71%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: MRSH away, as favorite; CCU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MRSH UO–OU	3-3	50%	4-3
CCU OUUUU	1-5	17%	4-3

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 56% of games with totals 43–51 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MRSHlast 7	4-3 57%	2-5 29%	3-3 50%
CCUlast 7	4-3 57%	5-2 71%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MRSH−2.3 →−3.7▼ 1.4#88

CCU−2.7 →−0.9▲ 1.8#68

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

MRSH

Longer bar = better

CCU

#102

Offense

CCU better ▶

#59

#51

Defense

◀ MRSH better

#70

−0.4 #102

Turnovers

CCU better ▶

+0.4 #39

72 plays #26

Pace

◀ MRSH faster

70 plays #46

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MRSH has the ball

Advantage: CCU defense

	MRSH off	CCU def	Edge
Points / game	27.3 #76	22.7 #49	CCU
Yards / play	5.36 #92	6.09 #107	Even
PPA / play	−0.02 #126	+0.07 #57	CCU
Success rate	38% #112	41% #65	CCU

When CCU has the ball

Even matchup

	CCU off	MRSH def	Edge
Points / game	29.7 #60	27.3 #84	CCU
Yards / play	6.43 #32	5.59 #74	CCU
PPA / play	+0.16 #57	−0.01 #22	MRSH
Success rate	41% #86	37% #24	MRSH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MRSH scoring against the CCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MRSH scored	3.4 #116	8.7 #56	12.1 #91	8.7 #25	6.4 #74	15.1 #42
CCU allowed	2.9 #16	7.7 #80	10.6 #44	5.9 #72	6.3 #68	12.1 #64

CCU scoring against the MRSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CCU scored	7.9 #33	8.1 #69	16.0 #50	8.9 #21	4.9 #108	13.7 #59
MRSH allowed	5.0 #65	8.6 #95	13.6 #80	6.9 #96	6.9 #80	13.7 #90

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.