Southern Miss @ App State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at App State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F4 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Southern Miss

1-6 · Power #121

final

Final

App State

3-4 · Power #61

▲ winner

Closing spread

APP -16

✓ USM W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 86 pts

Model before kickoff

USM 20–36 APP

✓ APP (87%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAPP -16

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseAPP -16

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close55.5

Line context

Home favorites of 14–18 since 2023: won 94%, covered 53% (51 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAPP -16

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like APP as a 16-point home favorite against USM, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 8 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: APP won 48–38; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 86 points went over 55.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 85%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 48%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 19.7 against an average line of 15.3; 70.7 points a game (usually 55.5). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ECU vs TEM 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-15.5	45–3	W	U52.25
Very close	UTSA vs RICE 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-17	45–0	W	U53
Very close	TEM vs USF 2020 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & season form	-14	39–37	L	O52.75
Very close	GASO vs ULM 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-16.5	38–28	L	O60.5
Very close	DUKE vs KU 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total	-16.25	52–33	W	O57.5
Very close	TLSA vs USF 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & situation	-13.75	48–42	L	O57.5
Very close	HOU vs USF 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-14.5	56–21	W	O58.5
Very close	WSU vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-14.75	44–18	W	O52.5
Very close	HOU vs USF 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-17.5	42–27	L	O59
Very close	COLO vs STAN 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-13	43–46	L	O59

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USM LLLLL	1-6	14%	0-3	0-4
APP WPLLL	2-4-1	33%	1-2	1-4

Venue/role: USM away, as underdog; APP home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USM UOO–O	5-1	83%	1-6
APP OUOUU	4-3	57%	3-4

Went over in Q3. Of 93 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USMlast 7	1-6 14%	1-6 14%	5-1 83%
APPlast 7	3-4 43%	2-4-1 33%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

USM 2–1 APP USM leads · 3 games since 2014 · USM has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USM−0.3 →−13.9▼ 13.6#125

APP−1.3 →−4.0▼ 2.7#89

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

USM

Longer bar = better

APP

#118

Offense

APP better ▶

#50

#116

Defense

Even

#108

−0.3 #95

Turnovers

Even

−0.1 #82

68 plays #61

Pace

APP faster ▶

74 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USM has the ball

Even matchup

	USM off	APP def	Edge
Points / game	20.7 #112	29.9 #102	Even
Yards / play	4.79 #121	6.15 #116	Even
PPA / play	+0.02 #110	+0.16 #97	Even
Success rate	36% #130	46% #118	Even

When APP has the ball

Advantage: APP offense

	APP off	USM def	Edge
Points / game	32.4 #40	38.1 #133	APP
Yards / play	6.00 #54	7.12 #133	APP
PPA / play	+0.16 #53	+0.20 #116	APP
Success rate	44% #51	42% #80	APP

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

USM scoring against the APP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USM scored	5.3 #83	4.3 #123	9.6 #119	6.0 #73	5.1 #104	11.1 #96
APP allowed	5.0 #66	10.7 #116	15.7 #107	7.6 #110	4.7 #36	12.3 #69

APP scoring against the USM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
APP scored	6.3 #65	8.6 #60	14.9 #63	9.3 #11	7.3 #54	16.6 #26
USM allowed	12.0 #131	8.7 #95	20.7 #129	9.9 #131	7.6 #94	17.4 #125

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.