App State @ Old Dominion: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Old Dominion · Conference game

Weather at kickoff62°F12 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

App State

3-3 · Power #61

final

Final

Old Dominion

3-3 · Power #97

▲ winner

Closing spread

APP -6

✓ ODU W

Total

▼ Under · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

APP 29–24 ODU

✗ APP (66%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAPP -6

Total56

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseAPP -6

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close56

Line context

Road favorites of 4–8 since 2023: won 70%, covered 57% (53 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseAPP -6

Total56

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like APP as a 6-point road favorite at ODU, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ODU won 28–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 49 points stayed under 56, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.9 against an average line of 6.4; 57.3 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FAU @ CLT 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	38–9	W	U58
Very close	GAST @ GASO 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6	21–14	W	U55
Very close	SJSU @ UNM 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.5	52–24	W	O55
Very close	M-OH @ OHIO 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-7	33–35	L	O54.5
Very close	CMU @ EMU 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	31–23	W	U59
Very close	WMU @ NIU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-7	42–21	W	O58.5
Very close	WKU @ LT 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6	35–28	W	O59
Very close	LT @ ODU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & spread	-4	20–23	L	U52.25
Very close	TOL @ BUFF 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & situation	-7	27–34	L	O56
Very close	TLSA @ USF 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-7	32–31	L	O55.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
APP WWPLL	2-3-1	40%	1-1-1	1-3
ODU WW–WW	4-1	80%	2-0	4-1

Venue/role: APP away, as favorite; ODU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
APP OOUOU	4-2	67%	3-3
ODU OU–O–	3-1	75%	3-3

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 8. 50% of games with totals 52–60 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
APPlast 6	3-3 50%	2-3-1 40%	4-2 67%
ODUlast 6	3-3 50%	4-1 80%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

APP 4–3 ODU APP leads · 7 games since 2015 · ODU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

APP−1.3 →−2.6▼ 1.3#81

ODU−5.2 →−9.6▼ 4.4#113

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

APP

Longer bar = better

ODU

#47

Offense

◀ APP better

#105

#100

Defense

ODU better ▶

#53

−0.2 #83

Turnovers

◀ APP better

−0.8 #125

75 plays #10

Pace

◀ APP faster

60 plays #127

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When APP has the ball

Even matchup

	APP off	ODU def	Edge
Points / game	34.3 #31	26.2 #74	APP
Yards / play	6.07 #53	4.88 #25	ODU
PPA / play	+0.14 #59	+0.01 #31	ODU
Success rate	44% #46	43% #82	APP

When ODU has the ball

Even matchup

	ODU off	APP def	Edge
Points / game	23.5 #100	30.2 #100	Even
Yards / play	5.87 #60	6.11 #107	ODU
PPA / play	−0.08 #133	+0.13 #89	APP
Success rate	36% #127	44% #103	APP

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

APP scoring against the ODU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
APP scored	6.2 #67	8.8 #58	15.0 #62	9.7 #15	8.5 #32	18.2 #13
ODU allowed	4.2 #49	5.8 #38	10.0 #38	9.0 #124	7.2 #85	16.2 #115

ODU scoring against the APP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ODU scored	2.3 #131	9.7 #44	12.0 #97	7.5 #45	4.0 #120	11.5 #93
APP allowed	5.8 #85	9.7 #106	15.5 #102	8.3 #115	4.2 #23	12.5 #75

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.