Troy @ Texas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Texas State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff81°F6 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Troy

5-2 · Power #29

▲ winner

Final

Texas State

5-2 · Power #73

final

Closing spread

TROY -6.5

✓ TROY W

Total

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

TROY 31–25 TXST

✓ TROY (67%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTROY -6.5

Total53

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTROY -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close53

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 60% (44 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTROY -6.5

Total53

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TROY as a 6.5-point road favorite at TXST, the favorite won 9, covered 8, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: TROY won 31–13; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 53, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.7 against an average line of 5.8; 51.3 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TULN @ MEM 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	31–21	W	U55
Close	MRSH @ GASO 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & spread	-6	23–10	W	U52.5
Close	TULN @ TLSA 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	27–13	W	U56
Close	FRES @ USU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-5.5	37–32	L	O56
Close	JMU @ USU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar total & spread	-5	45–38	W	O52.5
Close	ILL @ NEB 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	26–9	W	U50.5
Close	TOL @ BUFF 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-7	27–34	L	O56
Close	ISU @ KSU 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	33–20	W	O51
Close	FAU @ CLT 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	38–9	W	U58
Close	NCST @ BC 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	33–7	W	U51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TROY LLWWW	3-4	43%	2-1	2-3
TXST WLWLL	4-3	57%	1-2	2-1

Venue/role: TROY away, as favorite; TXST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TROY UUU–U	2-4	33%	5-2
TXST OUOUU	2-4	33%	5-2

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 55% of games with totals 49–57 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TROYlast 7	5-2 71%	3-4 43%	2-4 33%
TXSTlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TROY0.0 →+5.0▲ 5.0#36

TXST+3.4 →−1.4▼ 4.8#73

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

TROY

Longer bar = better

TXST

#67

Offense

TXST better ▶

#17

#14

Defense

◀ TROY better

#69

−0.3 #96

Turnovers

Even

−0.1 #84

68 plays #68

Pace

TXST faster ▶

72 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TROY has the ball

Even matchup

	TROY off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	26.6 #81	28.4 #93	Even
Yards / play	6.58 #22	5.55 #71	TROY
PPA / play	+0.13 #65	+0.06 #52	Even
Success rate	40% #99	41% #61	TXST

When TXST has the ball

Even matchup

	TXST off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	38.3 #11	17.4 #18	Even
Yards / play	6.81 #15	4.53 #12	Even
PPA / play	+0.24 #29	−0.10 #5	TROY
Success rate	50% #11	35% #19	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TROY scoring against the TXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	4.9 #91	9.4 #41	14.3 #70	5.9 #77	6.4 #74	12.3 #82
TXST allowed	6.0 #83	7.0 #64	13.0 #73	5.9 #73	9.6 #119	15.4 #108

TXST scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TXST scored	10.9 #9	12.7 #10	23.6 #6	5.4 #89	9.3 #21	14.7 #48
TROY allowed	2.9 #17	6.9 #62	9.7 #32	2.4 #8	5.3 #45	7.7 #15

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.