Ohio State @ Wisconsin: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Wisconsin · Conference game

Weather at kickoff39°F8 mphgusts 17DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Ohio State

7-0 · Power #4

▲ winner

Final

Wisconsin

5-2 · Power #42

final

Closing spread

OSU -14.5

✓ WIS W

Total

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

OSU 31–17 WIS

✓ OSU (84%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOSU -14.5

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseOSU -14.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOSU -14.5

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OSU as a 14.5-point road favorite at WIS, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: OSU won 24–10; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 47, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.3 against an average line of 14.6; 49.3 points a game (usually 55.7). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UGA @ AUB 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14	27–20	L	O45.5
Very close	ALA @ MSST 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-14.5	40–17	W	O46.5
Very close	PSU @ ILL 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & spread	-14	30–13	W	U47.5
Very close	ND @ BC 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-13	45–31	W	O51.5
Close	UGA @ AUB 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-14.5	34–10	W	U45.5
Close	UGA @ MSST 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-16.25	45–19	W	O53
Close	OKST @ KSU 2020 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-14	20–18	L	U48.5
Close	TA&M @ TENN 2020 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	34–13	W	U49.5
Close	TEX @ BAY 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-17.5	38–6	W	U49.5
Close	MINN @ NEB 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest	-14.5	20–13	L	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OSU WPWWW	4-2-1	67%	1-1-1	4-2-1
WIS WWLLW	3-4	43%	1-3	—

Venue/role: OSU away, as favorite; WIS home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OSU OU–UU	1-5	17%	7-0
WIS UO–UO	3-3	50%	5-2

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 56% of games with totals 43–51 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OSUlast 7	7-0 100%	4-2-1 67%	1-5 17%
WISlast 7	5-2 71%	3-4 43%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OSU+8.6 →+20.4▲ 11.8#2

WIS+6.6 →+7.1▲ 0.5#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

OSU

Longer bar = better

WIS

#24

Offense

◀ OSU better

#71

#10

Defense

◀ OSU better

#24

+0.1 #60

Turnovers

◀ OSU better

−0.1 #81

66 plays #83

Pace

WIS faster ▶

73 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OSU has the ball

Even matchup

	OSU off	WIS def	Edge
Points / game	33.7 #35	18.3 #20	Even
Yards / play	6.59 #21	4.91 #26	Even
PPA / play	+0.32 #11	−0.02 #18	Even
Success rate	47% #29	38% #33	Even

When WIS has the ball

Advantage: OSU defense

	WIS off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	26.9 #78	10.0 #3	OSU
Yards / play	5.44 #86	3.94 #2	OSU
PPA / play	+0.09 #86	−0.06 #11	OSU
Success rate	46% #35	36% #22	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

OSU scoring against the WIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	6.3 #65	11.3 #19	17.6 #32	7.9 #37	8.3 #31	16.1 #29
WIS allowed	3.4 #32	5.9 #28	9.3 #26	4.9 #48	4.1 #21	9.0 #27

WIS scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WIS scored	3.9 #110	6.9 #94	10.7 #107	8.6 #25	7.6 #49	16.1 #29
OSU allowed	2.9 #18	2.3 #3	5.1 #3	2.0 #6	2.9 #3	4.9 #4

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.